Turkish prices edge up

Participants point to tighter supply and stronger domestic rebar demand in Türkiye as US local markets strengthen.

Turkish deepsea imported scrap prices strengthened throughout November and December as seasonal supply tightness and elevated demand in the downstream rebar market pushed up scrap prices. Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed Turkish imports of premium heavy melting scrap 1/2 (80:20) at US$ 370 per tonne CFR on 31 December, up from US$ 353 on 3 November.

Seasonal dips in the fresh scrap generation rate and unfavourable weather conditions on the US East Coast resulted in supply tightness towards the end of 2025. Limited sellers in the US market also supported higher price levels toward the end of the year. 

COSTLIER US CARGOES

Participants noted that US suppliers’ focus on the domestic market toward the end of the year also pushed up price levels. ‘US cargoes are getting more expensive and their local market is getting stronger and local mills are getting more material, so Turkish mills get more desperate, which leads to prices going up,’ a recycler source said. ‘It’s a bullish trend overall as there is a lack of scrap available.’

Participants reported that offer levels for US-origin HMS 1/2 80:20 were at US$ 371 per tonne CFR at the end of December, up from US$ 360-365 per tonne CFR at the beginning of November.

In Europe, seasonal supply side challenges also pushed up offer levels, with participants reporting offers for EU-origin HMS 1/2 80:20 at US$ 365-367 per tonne CFR at the end of December, up from offers of US$355 per tonne CFR in the middle of November.

COLLECTION PRICES

Rising collection costs also supported firmer scrap prices, with recycler sources reporting that collection costs were at approximately EUR 265 per tonne at the end of December compared to EUR 245-250 per tonne at the beginning of November. ‘There is limited availability of cargo… scrap collection is much more competitive in Europe,’ the recycler source said.

In addition, participants remained watchful of the euro strengthening against the US dollar in November and December 2025, which squeezed margins for EU sellers. Platts assessed the euro/US dollar spot at US$ 1.1754 on 31 December, up from US$ 1.1528 on 3 November.

FAVOURABLE WEATHER

On the buy-side, an uptick in domestic demand for rebar, beginning in late October and early November, pushed rebar prices upward toward the end of the year. Favourable weather conditions for the Turkish construction industry lasted later into the year than expected, resulting in increased demand for rebar.

Participants noted that the increased demand led to many Turkish mills suffering from rebar supply shortages, which added additional upside price pressure. Participants reported that tradable levels for domestic rebar were at US$ 570 per tonne ex-works Türkiye at the end of December, compared with US$ 550 per tonne EXW on 4 November.

Domestic rebar offers peaked in late November, with participants reporting that Turkish traders were offering at US$ 600 per tonne EXW amid limited rebar stock availability from Turkish mills.

This jump in domestic prices also resulted in rising export prices and Platts assessed exported rebar at US$ 560 per tonne FOB on 31 December, up from US$ 540 per tonne FOB on 3 November.
 

REBAR SCEPTICISM

But some participants remained sceptical about the sustainability of higher rebar prices as demand began to dissipate throughout December. ‘Rebar sentiment has touched the ceiling, it has moved up too fast, and rebar demand has not drastically improved, so I’m not sure how far this can go,’ another recycler source said.

As rebar demand slipped toward the end of December, mills were reportedly hesitant to purchase scrap cargoes for January delivery amid slower domestic rebar demand and limited export interest. ‘Mills will probably wait or ask for lower prices… I know some mills do not even want to pay US$ 365 per tonne CFR for scrap as they do not see aggressive rebar demand… therefore, we can expect scrap prices to decrease,’ one mill source said.

OUTLOOK

Multiple participants expected scrap prices to move sideways at the beginning of 2026, with margins remaining tight for both buyers and sellers amid challenging market conditions. Some participants noted that downstream rebar demand would continue to drive scrap prices into the year.

‘Export deals are happening but the main market is local and there will be limited rebar demand in winter and Ramadan starts in mid-February,’ one agent source said, adding that they expected prices to remain largely stable in the first quarter of 2026.

Participants also remained hesitant about the impact of the EU’s new CBAM [carbon emission tool for imports] regime and remained uncertain surrounding EU duties and quotas. ‘EU carbon rules and quotas are impacting the domestic market, so European producers are expecting very high prices to impact domestic scrap prices in Europe,’ a second agent source said.

US SENTIMENT

The US ferrous scrap market entered 2026 with a bullish outlook, according to FastMarkets’ latest Trend Indicator which registered at 57.3, suggesting upward pressure on prices, translating to a forecast month-on-month increase of 3.2%. There had been a stronger gain of 4.2% recorded in December.

‘The consensus level, at 58%, aligns closely with the 24-month average, indicating balanced sentiment across participants,’ said FM. ‘Inventories are reported slightly above average at 52.2, reflecting stable mill stocking.’

Buyers were said to be holding the most bullish view (59.72), while brokers were more reserved at 55. Sellers’ sentiment remained bullish at 57.3.

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