LME rises sustained

The growth in nickel prices may have eased but they remain consistently higher than in recent years. Indonesia has added uncertainty by cutting mining quotas.

Nickel stole the headlines during January following the announcement by the Government of a large reduction in Indonesian mining quotas in 2026, which in turn lent support to stainless steel prices.

The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources set a mining quota for nickel ore (RKAB) of 260–270 million wet tonnes (Mwt). This was down from the previous year’s quota of 379 Mwt.

Weda Bay Nickel, the largest mine in the country, has an RKAB set at 12 Mwt, a sharp decrease from 42 Mwt in 2025. Joint owner Eramet says it intends to apply for a revision of the quota to a higher volume as soon as possible.

Growth maintained

Three-month nickel prices on the LME, which were already elevated past US$ 17 000 per tonne, continued their upward momentum, hitting a high of US$ 18 756 on 23 January, a level last seen in 2024.

After that, there were some downward corrections towards US$ 18 000 before slipping below US$ 17 000 into February. But prices remain well above the US$ 15 000 levels recorded in broad periods in 2025.

‘We have seen the surplus story take a backseat and we’ve more seen that the supply uncertainty, and even partial supply uncertainty, has caused quite big moves in the nickel space, pushing prices from US$ 14 000 to US$ 19 000 in quite a short period of time,’ according to Sucden Financial.

The UK financial institution added: ‘If you look at it on from the fundamental perspective, seasonally we see quite a softness on stainless steel demand which has obviously been weighing on the overall demand in general.’

On iron ore, ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes noted that SGX futures prices fell below US$ 100 per tonne as demand in China slowed ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. ‘Stockpiles at Chinese ports have been building in recent weeks as the industry enters the seasonal shutdown period.

This comes as exporters such as Australia and Brazil have been boosting supply.’ The latest prices are down from highs of US$ 108 per tonne seen at the start of the year.

Europe demand

In a recent BIR World Mirror, Joost van Kleef, chairman of the stainless steel and special alloys committee noted demand for stainless steel in Europe had increased slightly in February. Referring to the EU’s newly implemented Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, he said products considered to be contributing to carbon leakage are now subject to surcharges, which he believes are likely to result in higher prices.

There has been stable demand for stainless scrap, he adds, although continuing imports of nickel pig iron as well as stainless slabs are limiting upward price expectations.

In India, stainless steel production has grown 14% year-on-year to reach 4.27 million tonnes (Mt). Correspondingly, stainless steel scrap imports surged 21% in 2025 to reach 1.47 Mt. The Middle East also saw demand continue to grow into late 2025.
Data from the stainless steel branch of the China Iron and Steel Association shows a 3.62% rise in Chinese crude output in 2025 to 40.87 Mt. Domestic apparent consumption climbed 2.98% to 33.4 Mt.

Aperam ‘stable’

Aperam’s full-year results saw shipments of 2 287 000 tonnes in 2025, somewhat stable when compared to 2024. Shipments in Q4 fell to 554 000 tonnes, up from 505 000 on the year before but down from 567 000 in Q3 2025.

Ebitda fell to EUR 39 million in Q4, down from EUR 74m in Q3 and EUR 118m in the fourth quarter of 2024. Full year ebitda fell to EUR 275m from EUR 358m in 2024.

Lower ebitda was attributed to pricing pressure, low demand in Europe and a weak oil and gas industry for alloys while seasonal factors and annual maintenance in Brazil had also had an impact. Despite this, Aperam expects the final figure for Q1 to be at a higher level than it was in Q4 2025.

Outokumpu headwinds

Outokumpu saw its deliveries and earnings decline both in Q4 and the full year, citing headwinds in Europe. Q4 stainless steel deliveries were 365 000 tonnes, down from 422 000 tonnes one year earlier. Ebitda was a loss of EUR 27m in Q4 compared to minus EUR 12m in the final quarter of 2024.

Looking at the full year, stainless steel deliveries were 1 751 000 tonnes, down year-on-year from 1 793 000 tonnes. Ebitda was EUR 88m, down from EUR 162m in 2024.

President and ceo Kati ter Horst said: ‘2025 was marked by subdued demand for stainless steel, driven by rising uncertainty and global trade disruptions, pressuring our profitability.’

The European market also faced sustained pressure from low-priced imports from Asia. Activity in the Americas picked up as buyers redirected orders to domestic producers in response to the tariff increase. Outokumpu expects an ebitda improvement in the first quarter.

Elsewhere, Yongjin Technology Group, through its Singapore-based subsidiary Xinyue Asset Management, and other partners will invest US$ 380 million in a Vietnam-based green stainless steel project, which will have an annual capacity of two million tonnes a year.

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