WSA: steel demand growth to be ‘slightly lower’ in 2014

Worldwide – Global apparent steel use will increase by 3.1% to 1.527 billion tonnes this year following growth of 3.6% in 2013, the World Steel Association (WSA) forecasts in its short-range outlook for 2014 and 2015. Next year, world steel demand is expected to grow by a further 3.3% to 1.576 billion tonnes, the organisation adds.

′The downturn in the EU bottomed out and we now expect that steel demand in the Eurozone will move into positive growth in 2014,′ comments Hans Jürgen Kerkhoff, chairman of the WSA′s Economics Committee. On the other hand, many emerging economies ′continue to struggle′ with structural concerns – like debts and the unrest surrounding Crimea – as well as financial market volatility.

Economies are likely to remain ′fragile and susceptible to external shocks′, Kerkhoff warns. ′Along with China′s deceleration, this is the reason for our slightly lower global growth rate forecast for 2014.′

Apparent steel use growth in China is expected to dip to 3% this year to 721.2 million tonnes; this compares to growth of 6.1% in 2013. A steady recovery in developed economies and progress among emerging economies will yield growth in ′most parts of the world′ next year. However, China′s steel demand growth is expected to decline to roughly 2.7% in 2015, suppressing potential global gains throughout the year.

Meanwhile, apparent steel use in Japan is likely to contract by 1% to 64.6 million tonnes this year owing to the negative impact of a consumption tax hike on the construction and automotive sectors; however, this will be followed by an increase of 0.5% in 2015, Kerkhoff notes.

′In the United States, after a decrease of 0.6% in apparent steel use in 2013, the years 2014 and 2015 are expected to deliver a return to growth and recovery,′ he goes on to say. US apparent steel use will climb 4% to total 99.4 million tonnes in 2014 before gaining 3.7% in 2015, the WSA believes.

In India, steel demand is expected to rise by 3.3% to 76.2 million tonnes this year, following growth of 1.8% in 2013; this is due to an ′improved outlook′ for both the construction and manufacturing sectors.

For more information, visit: www.worldsteel.org