New notification requirements under the EU’s updated waste shipment rules cut market access for European traders, causing prices to fall.
The European plastic recycling market has experienced major disruption following the implementation of the new Waste Shipment Regulation notification system in May. What was expected to be a regulatory transition quickly turned into a serious bottleneck for the European plastic scrap trade, as technical problems with the DIWASS system and delays in processing notifications effectively restricted exports to third countries.
A major complication was that several Asian countries provided consent for notifications at the end of May and the beginning of June but the European authorities did not recognise these approvals because they were received after the 21 May deadline.
As a result, notifications that exporters had spent a couple of months preparing and processing effectively became unusable. They were forced to restart the process through DIWASS, while European and Asian authorities had to repeat much of the verification and approval process. This created additional administrative work, confusion, and further delays.
Price slump
With exports unable to proceed without the required notification approval, European exporters suddenly lost access to many of their traditional markets. Material that would normally have moved to Türkiye and Asia remained in Europe, while local recyclers were flooded with additional supply.
Domestic demand was insufficient to absorb the volumes, and many recyclers reduced their purchasing activity. The July and August holiday period further weakened demand, keeping the market sluggish throughout the summer.
The impact on scrap prices was severe, particularly for export-dependent grades. LDPE mixed-colour film fell from around EUR 30–50 per tonne to between negative EUR 20 per tonne and EUR 50, while PP Jumbo Bags colour and C grade dropped from around EUR 5–10 per tonne to approximately negative EUR 40-60 per tonne.
Even better-quality material was affected with LDPE natural film down from EUR 240 per tonne to approximately EUR 170.
Asian shortages
The disruption created an unusual imbalance between Europe and Asia. While European recyclers faced an oversupply of material, many Asian recyclers were concerned about shortages and the ability to keep their factories running. This clearly demonstrated that the underlying demand for European scrap had not disappeared. Rather, the regulatory process had temporarily prevented supply from reaching the markets where it was needed.
Asian authorities have continued to take considerable time to review and respond to notifications, while DIWASS still faces technical and reporting issues. Differences in the implementation of the regulation between the various European authorities have added further uncertainty for exporters. Many trading companies dependent on export business have been severely affected, with some struggling to maintain their operations.Prime volatility
Prime volatility
Prime plastic prices also remained highly volatile during this period, largely driven by the unpredictable developments in the USA–Iran conflict. Almost every major announcement or change in the situation had an immediate impact on crude oil prices, which in turn created significant fluctuations in prime polymer prices.
Asian prime prices remained relatively high due to concerns over crude oil supply and availability, increasing the competitive advantage of recycled materials.
However, Asian recyclers were unable to fully benefit from these favourable prime-versus-scrap economics, as European scrap could not move to Asia because of the ongoing notification and export restrictions. This created an unusual situation where recycled material was potentially attractive to Asian buyers but the regulatory bottleneck prevented them from accessing sufficient scrap.
November deadline
The European plastic recycling market entered the second half of 2026 under considerable pressure. A recovery will depend largely on whether the notification system becomes reliable and whether approvals can be processed quickly enough to restore regular export flows.
From 21 November, when exports to non-OECD countries will be completely banned, further significant turbulence in the market is to be expected. With export opportunities increasingly concentrated in Türkiye, where shipments will remain possible under the notification procedure, prices for export-grade plastic waste are likely to become heavily influenced by Turkish market conditions.
This concentration of demand could create further volatility and put additional pressure on European exporters and recyclers.
Contributed by Surendra Patawari, ceo of Gemini Corporation.
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