Stable prices in quiet season

Turkish deep sea import scrap could face upside pressure after a muted summer while major conflicts continue to bear down on markets.

Market participants were slightly bullish at the end of the summer and many expected prices to strengthen in the short term.

‘Prices will rise in the medium-term after a watchful start to September, as European trading activity, Turkish mill production, and domestic sales should all pick up, while a likely end to the supply overrun from the US will also support prices,’ one trader said. ‘Scrap import demand should be consistent if these factors work out, but what we don’t know is exactly when it will happen.’

Despite the prospect of improved demand from September, participants remained concerned that the Ukraine/Russia and Middle East conflicts could continue to weigh on the market. Disruptions to imports from Russia and via the Black Sea were also identified by participants as key factors supporting scrap prices in the medium term.

‘Scrap prices are not going up as fast as current steel market dynamics would dictate,’ a mill source said. ‘When the market is going up as slowly as it is, you can afford to wait with cash reserves rather than buying quickly at lower levels.’

Slow summer

Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, assessed the price of deep sea imported HMS 1/2 80:20 scrap into Türkiye at US$ 375 per tonne CFR on 28 August after falling to its lowest level since early January at US$ 370 on 8 July.

‘Summer was slow in Europe and Türkiye; there was limited inflow of material to docks and very little activity in Türkiye’s domestic market,’ a trader source added.

Since 22 July, scrap prices remained tightly rangebound at US$ 375-377 per tonne CFR. In late August, participants pegged tradable values for US or premium-origin HMS 1/2 (80:20) clustered at that level and EU-origin material at US$ 369-371.

‘US sellers have been happy to keep the market stable because their purchase prices are down and, if the market goes up, their purchase prices will have to go up,’ a second trader said.

According to Platts’ data, the New Jersey-Aliaga 40 000 tonne Supramax freight rate averaged US$ 35.45 per tonne in July, its highest level since December 2023 and up from US$ 27.26 in July last year.

Stronger rebar

Despite weak downstream demand during the summer months, low US scrap exports due to robust domestic demand, limited scrap supply from Europe due to low water levels in the River Rhine and freight disruptions in the Black Sea were all reported to have supported scrap prices in recent months.

‘Since the start of summer, scrap prices have been stable due to very low Turkish finished products demand, which is why mills will continue to buy fewer scrap cargoes in the near-term, even though importing semi-finished products from the Black Sea is risky nowadays,’ another mill source said.

Rebar prices strengthened throughout August, Platts data showed. Turkish exported rebar was assessed at US$ 590 per tonne FOB on 27 August, up from US$ 577.50 at the beginning of the month. The spread between imported scrap and exported rebar widened to US$ 215 per tonne the same day, compared with US$ 200.50 at the beginning of August.

Türkiye produced 23.2 million tonnes of crude steel over January-July, up 7.9% year over year, according to World Steel Association data.

US still top supplier

Turkish ferrous scrap imports totaled 4.94 million tonnes (Mt) in the second quarter of 2026, up from 4.73 Mt in Q1 2026, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Global Trade Analytics Suite. According to the data, the US remained the top supplier for Turkish mills sourcing deep sea cargoes in Q2, with the UK displacing the Netherlands to move into second place.

Scrap imports from the US stood at 791 695 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026, down sharply from 981 401 tonnes in Q1, while imports from the UK stood at 632 797 tonnes in Q2. Notably, in June, Belgium was the biggest supplier of scrap to Türkiye at 197 991 tonnes, followed closely by the UK and Russia.

Regulations tighten

Greater controls on scrap exports and broader efforts to protect domestic steel manufacturers have been cited in the latest ferrous market outlook from the Bureau of International Recycling. Shane Mellor, president of the ferrous division notes that trade policy is increasingly shaping market dynamics.

Safeguard measures, anti-dumping actions, carbon-related mechanisms and broader industrial strategies are said to be reshaping competitive positions and influencing investment decisions throughout the steel value chain. Despite these challenges, he asserts the long-term fundamentals supporting recycled steel remain strong.

‘The steel industry’s commitment to decarbonisation, the continued expansion of electric arc furnace capacity and the growing recognition of recycled steel as an essential circular raw material continue to reinforce its strategic importance. Around the world, policymakers and manufacturers are placing greater emphasis on resource efficiency, supply security and sustainability – areas in which recycled steel plays a pivotal role.’

Fellow board member Michael Gaylard from Sims in the USA believes policy intervention has become an increasingly important driver of global steel markets in 2026 and could support a gradual recovery in recycled steel demand.
‘Measures designed to protect domestic producers and promote local steelmaking are beginning to improve mill utilisation in several regions, partially offsetting weak end-use demand.’