It’s early days but analysts suggest Brussels‘ recent trade measures are reducing shipments into the bloc. This is boosting EU mills‘ utilisation.
The World Stainless Association figures for the first half year of 2026 show total stainless steel melt shop production was 33.0 million tonnes, an increase of 5% compared to the same period in 2025.
Asia produced 28.3 million tonnes, a rise of 6.1% compared to the first half year of 2025. The European Union delivered 2.9 million tonnes, down 3.7%. The United States produced 1.1 million tonnes, an increase of 2.3%. China accounted for 63.9% of global output.
In Europe, new trade measures which have reduced import quotas already appear to be having an impact on the market, despite the slower summer season.
Company reports
Outokumpu has reported that stainless steel deliveries increased by 5% to 488 000 tonnes in its second quarter, versus 465 000 tonnes in the first quarter.
The producer said demand was supported by regional policy measures in Europe, while end-use demand improved only in some industrial segments. In the US, robust demand was supported by improved activity in several industrial segments.
Outokumpu also announced an investment programme in high-nickel alloys at its Avesta site in Sweden, saying is a segment offering attractive global growth, higher margins and resilience.
Meanwhile, Aperam’s Q2 results showed a 1.8% decrease in shipments to 606 000 tonnes from 617 000 tonnes the previous quarter. Despite this, it reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of EUR 159 million, up from an Ebitda of EUR 90 million in Q1.
The company said it was the best quarter in four years, driven by strong performance in all its segments, despite an increase in raw material prices across H1.
In an earlier market update it noted the new trade measures were already having an impact as of Q2, saying ‘Europe has experienced relief from lower import volumes, directly correlating to higher capacity utilisation in the European mills.’
However, the company warned that Q3 Ebitda will be lower compared to Q2 2026 due to seasonal patterns.
CBAM impact
In a BIR market update, Joost van Kleef of Oryx Stainless and Chairman of the BIR Stainless Steel & Special Alloys Committee also highlighted that the new EU trade measures, alongside the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), had provided strong support to order intake at European mills.
‘As a result, import penetration was effectively cut in half during this period’ he wrote. ‘It now appears that part of this demand was driven by restocking rather than genuine end-user consumption. The coming months will reveal to what extent underlying demand is able to absorb these inventories.’
In the Middle East, Omar Al Sharif of Sharif Metals Group highlighted that market pricing during the second quarter was influenced primarily by transportation costs and supply chain conditions rather than significant changes in global stainless steel production or underlying demand.
On inputs, the London Metal Exchange three-month nickel prices trended lower from US$ 19 250 per tonne from early June to end the month below US$ 16 300. Some recovery was seen in July, reaching highs of US$ 17 380. Into August, prices have mostly traded within a range of US$ 16 760 – 17 200 but remained below the top end of the range into September.
Nickel movement
Ongoing speculation for increased Indonesian quotas has resulted in fluctuations for nickel.
In early September, Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, linked higher nickel prices to news of Morowali Industrial Park, a processing plant on the island of Sulawesi, potentially cutting production by 30-40% if new sources of water are not found.
Sucden Financial’s third quarter report highlighted the ‘strengthened the price floor’ for nickel due to Indonesia’s tighter ore approvals and elevated HPAL input costs. Its outlook expects prices to remain supported into late September, but rangebound.
Iron ore
On iron ore, the SGX 61% Fe contract fell below US$ 100 per tonne during mid-June. There were brief recovery attempts in July to break back past this level but the raw material has remained rangebound in the mid-to-high US$ 90s.
In early August, the iron ore contract breached a one-year low on tepid demand. Chinese hot metal and steel output data has shown declines with weaker months during the summer, which has weighed on iron ore prices.
Elevated iron ore inventories at Chinese ports and finished steel inventories at mills has also limited the potential for increases, compounded by rising input costs in China, which has weighed on steelmakers’ margins.
On the supply side, BHP workers striking at Port Hedland provided some support on disruption concerns, however, prices remained below US$ 100 per tonne into September.
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