Batteries in electric vehicles (EVs) could stay on the road far longer than many forecasts have assumed, forcing recyclers, carmakers and policymakers to rethink their long-term strategies.
New research by consultancy CES argues that EVs and their battery packs typically remain in service for more than 20 years. That contrasts sharply with earlier forecasts, which often assumed batteries would reach end-of-life between four and 15 years.
According to CES, these assumptions have shaped investment decisions across the automotive recycling chain for more than a decade.
Recycling outpaces supply
The consultancy says Europe’s battery recycling sector has expanded well ahead of available feedstock. Similar trends are emerging in North America and China. Instead of a surge in spent EV batteries this decade, CES expects meaningful recycling volumes to emerge only during the mid-2030s.
Many batteries remain inside vehicles for much longer than expected. Private EVs complete fewer than one full charging cycle each week, while larger battery packs reduce annual wear despite increasing mileage.
The report also highlights exports as a major factor. CES estimates that 37.6% of European EVs, 42.4% in the United States and 34.4% in China are exported before reaching end of life. As a result, valuable batteries remain in service abroad instead of entering domestic recycling streams.
Focus shifts upstream
Rather than building additional processing capacity, CES believes recyclers should strengthen upstream services.
The consultancy points to logistics, battery handling, pre-processing, warranty support and preparation for reuse as opportunities that generate revenue before batteries reach recycling plants.
It also argues that recyclers should work more closely with dismantlers, repair specialists, insurers and remanufacturers. ‘None of these players succeeds alone,’ CES states. ‘Value is retained only if they work together rather than optimising against one another.’
According to the report, positive recycling values also encourage dismantlers and repurposing companies to recover batteries instead of exporting entire vehicles.
Strategies need updating
CES argues that many battery regulations were developed using overly conservative lifespan assumptions.
The consultancy believes this contributed to ambitious recycling targets, extensive battery tracking requirements and significant investment in recycling infrastructure before sufficient feedstock became available.
For vehicle manufacturers, the report says improving residual values should now become a higher priority than focusing solely on closed-loop material recovery.
Meanwhile, policymakers should consider how exports reshape battery availability and recognise the close links between recycling, repair, reuse and remanufacturing.
According to CES, understanding how long EV batteries remain in service is essential for everyone involved in the circular economy.
Don't hesitate to contact us to share your input and ideas. Subscribe to the magazine or (free) newsletter.
