Asia demand redraws OCC trade flows

The OCC market is evolving fast, with exports pivoting to ‘Other Asia’ and recycled content overtaking virgin fibre, the recent bvse recovered paper conference in Berlin has been told.

Kelly McNamara, director of custom research and recovered fibre at Numera Analytics in Canada, told delegates there are many question marks on the horizon for recyclers in North America, Europe and beyond.

OCC continues to dominate the sector, she said, accounting for 70% of recycled paper across North America. Growth is driven by e-commerce, tighter regulation and rising demand for sustainable packaging.

However, recycling rates have been revised. The American Forest & Paper Association has adjusted its figure from 90% to a ‘more realistic’ 76%.

Meanwhile, fibre use is changing. The recycled-versus-virgin input ratio was 60-40 in 2000. By 2030, it will approach 80-20, with reduced reliance on virgin fibre.

Changing exports

McNamara said global trade flows continue to evolve: ‘China is the biggest market for OCC. We don’t trade material with them anymore, yet it remains the top one consumer of OCC.’Instead, western exporters now target ‘Other Asia’.

Of the more than 70 million tonnes processed annually in North America, over 15 million tonnes moved to markets such as Vietnam, India and Malaysia.

Asia plans around 4.5 million tonnes additional capacity by 2028, with Vietnam accounting for roughly half. Vietnam’s imports of OCC are expected to grow at around 13% per year.

Demand fundamentals remain strong. Containerboard production continues to drive OCC consumption, with at least 85% of collected material returning to production.

Crucially, recycled capacity is expanding while virgin output declines. In North America, 4.4 million tonnes of virgin capacity has been lost in three years. At the same time, 1.4 million tonnes of recycled capacity has been added.

Europe mirrors this trend, adding four million tonnes of recycled containerboard capacity.Asia is scaling rapidly with China alone adding 70 million tonnes of recycled capacity in recent years.

Uncertainty

Despite this momentum, energy markets cloud the outlook. ‘New orders were on the rise… until recently,’ McNamara noted.‘The geopolitical events in Iran are creating a new level of uncertainty. We’re adjusting our outlook as we speak. A lot of it comes back to the price of energy and gas. Things can change overnight.’

She pointed out the price of a barrel of oil was at US$ 60 in early March but had risen on occasions to US$ 115: ‘a pretty critical spike’.

As a result, weaker consumer demand could hit packaging volumes. ‘If people are not buying as many things, society don’t need all those boxes, right? It’s all connected.’

The long-term outlook remains positive. According to Future Market Insights, the global paper recycling market reached EUR 6.7 billion in 2025 and will grow steadily to 2036. Packaging leads demand with a 46.2% share, while Asia continues to outpace other regions.

In short, OCC markets are expanding while becoming more complex as trade shifts and cost pressures intensify.