Copper scrap demand set to rise in 2026

Recycling is gaining ground in the copper market. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports scrap-based refined output rose 5.4% in early 2025.

Overall refined copper production increased nearly 4% while demand climbed almost 6%, tightening the balance compared to last year.

Strong Asian interest

China remains the main driver, accounting for 58% of global usage. Its refined copper demand grew almost 9% in 2025, despite lower net imports. Outside China, consumption rose by about 2%, led by Asian and MENA countries, while Europe, Japan and the United States posted weaker markets.

Surplus

Mine supply also strengthened, up 3.4% in the first seven months of the year. Growth came from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mongolia, where new projects reached capacity. Indonesia, however, saw a steep 32% drop due to maintenance and mine sequencing.

ICSG data indicates a market surplus of around 100 000 tonnes, well below the 400 000 tonnes recorded in 2024. Analysts expect scrap availability and processing to play an even larger role in meeting demand in 2026. Investment in secondary refining capacity is viewed as essential for long-term stability.

Volatile prices

Prices remain volatile. The average LME cash price for August was EUR 8 970 per tonne, slightly down from July but 4% higher than the 2024 average.