Page 87 from: What’s inside?
FERROUS
Turkish scrap CFR
stabilises
87recyclinginternational.com | May/June | 2024
2024. ‘Based on the data for the first
two months of 2024, [China is] poised
to exceed its record exports seen in
2015,’ the outlook says. ‘Chinese steel
producers seem to be making profits
in each sale, with the lower iron ore
and coke prices and lower energy
costs in China. However, their long
product exports are still far behind
their flat rolled exports.’
EUROPE QUIET
Irepas reports Europe remaining quiet
with Germany one of the cheaper mar-
kets for rebar and wire rods. ‘Demand
in Europe has disappeared again after
a slight improvement at the end of
2023 and it seems it will not get better
before the second half. Cut and bend
prices are at levels which do not even
match replacement costs. It will proba-
bly take months before spreads return
to normal.’
The outlook adds that the US market
is ‘wobbling’ with erratic prices.
Customers in the US, the EU and
Canada are said to be waiting for
interest rates to ease and are delaying
projects in the meantime.
In conclusion, it describes market con-
ditions as ‘fluctuating unstably and dif-
ficult’. ‘The outlook for the market for
the next quarter is complicated and
challenging with huge uncertainty for
July, August and September.’
A U T H O R Robin Latchem
sources mostly said this would end up
having negligible near-term conse-
quences for the steel market.
ISRAEL BAN
Sentiment in the Turkish rebar market
was also adversely affected by the
announcement of steel export restric-
tions to Israel announced in the middle
of the Eid holiday, which was already
limiting deal activity. Turkey’s Trade
Ministry restricted 54 product groups
to Israel, including steel and alumini-
um, saying this would remain in effect
until a permanent ceasefire was
declared in Gaza as well as an uninter-
rupted flow of humanitarian aid into
the territory.
Israel was Turkey’s largest rebar export
market in February, with volumes to
Israel up 53% to 31 307 tonnes, while
sales to Yemen were down 58% on the
month to 31 183 tonnes, according to
data from the Turkish Statistical Institute.
Turkish mill sources have also recently
reported that sales to Yemen have
become difficult in recent weeks due
to geopolitical tensions. With a lack of
alternative export opportunities, the
impact of losing two major rebar
export markets may lead to reduced
buyer interest in imports of ferrous
scrap in the near-term, and an
increased dependence on the domes-
tic market for finished steel sales,
sources said.
LONG STEEL EXPORTS
China’s ‘aggressive’ export policy is
said to be aggravating already weak
demand for long products, according
to the latest short-term outlook from
Irepas, the global association of pro-
ducers and exporters of long steel
products. It notes that China acceler-
ated its exports at the beginning of
CHINA DECLINE
Meanwhile, the latest short-range out-
look from the World Steel Association
(worldsteel) suggests global steel
demand will rebound by 1.7% to reach
1 793 million tonnes (Mt). Further
growth of 1.2% in 2025, for an output
of 1 815 Mt, is expected. Worldsteel
expects steel demand in China this
year to remain around the level of
2023, with lower demand in the real
estate sector offset by growth in infra-
structure investment and manufactur-
ing sectors. Even so, demand in 2025
is anticipated to decline by 1%.
‘This projection is also in line with our
view that China might have reached its
peak steel demand. The country’s
steel demand is likely to continue to
decline in the medium-term as China
gradually moves away from a real
estate and infrastructure investment
dependent economic development
model,’ the outlook says.
Projections for the rest of the world
suggest a broad growth in steel
demand at a relatively strong level of
3.5% per annum over 2024-25. India
has emerged as the strongest driver of
recent demand growth and projections
suggest it will charge ahead with 8%
growth in 2024 and 2025, driven by
continued growth in steel-using sectors
and infrastructure.
The EU and the UK face the biggest
challenges, however. They are said to
be on a multitude of fronts: geopolitical
shifts and uncertainty, high inflation,
monetary tightening and partial with-
drawal of fiscal support, and high ener-
gy and commodity prices. In stark con-
trast, US steel demand is said to contin-
ue showing healthy fundamentals.
STEEL STATS
World crude steel production during
February was 148.8 million tonnes
(Mt), up 3.7% compared to February
2023, according to worldsteel. Of the
71 reporting countries, Turkey’s
monthly total grew by nearly 50%.
Among the top 10 producers, China is
estimated to have produced 81.2 Mt
in February 2024, up 3.5%. India pro-
duced 11.8 Mt (up 11.4%); Japan 7.0
Mt (up 1.1%); United States 6.5 Mt
(down 1.2%); Russia is estimated at 5.7
BACK EUROPEAN STEEL, URGES EUROFER
European steel makers have again urged EU policy
makers to put the needs of the industry at the top of
their agenda. The call from the European Steel
Association (Eurofer) and other high-level representa-
tives of the sector came during an event, the ‘Clean
Transition Dialogue on Steel’, with vice-presidents of
the European Commission, Maroš Šefčovič and
Margrethe Vestager.
The industry argues a strong and resilient EU can
only be forged with low-carbon steel made in
Europe. Speakers complained about ‘strong head-
winds’ from high energy prices, unfair competition,
global overcapacity and growing unilateral carbon
costs. European crude steel production in 2023 was
the lowest recorded.
Eurofer director general Axel Eggert acknowledged
that the EU and its member states had launched ini-
tiatives to incentivise and support the European
industrial transition towards carbon neutrality. But he
insisted the ‘the real bottlenecks have not been
solved’.
‘These include the supply of internationally competi-
tively priced low-carbon energy, the establishment of
lead-markets for European green steel, and measures
to address the massive, highly CO2-intensive excess
capacity in the global steel market. We therefore
urge policymakers to take swift action to preserve EU
steel production during its decarbonisation process
and the millions of high-quality jobs connected to it.’
Eurofer said the EU Dialogue was the first significant
initiative in this direction and hoped it would be fol-
lowed by concrete steps. ‘We have been advocating
for a Green Deal on Steel since 2020. The time has
now come to make it happen,’ Eggert added.
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