Page 90 from: Recycling International September/October 2025

MARKET ANALYSIS

Global trade: ‘steady as
she goes’
Sentiment remains little changed since the previous report with prices remaining

stable and showing few signs of upward movement.

compared to Q2 amid seasonality and
weakness in Europe.
A third producer, Acerinox, reported a
10% increase to its Ebitda in its Q2
results from Q1 to total EUR 112 mil-
lion. Despite this, it noted a highly
complex market environment marked
by geopolitical conflicts and tariff
wars, as well as import pressure in
Europe. For H1, revenue was EUR 3.1
billion, 10% higher than in the first six
months of 2024.

RANGE-BOUND PRICES
Meanwhile, LME three-month nickel
prices were largely range-bound
throughout the summer, fluctuating
between US$ 15 000-15 500 per tonne,
with brief dips below this range.
LME warehouse stocks of nickel ticked
higher at the end of June to 203 886
tonnes, up from
200 000 tonnes in late May. By the end
of July, stocks stood at 209 082
tonnes, creeping upwards but at a
much-reduced rate compared to earli-
er in the year. In July 2024 stocks
stood at 109 950 tonnes.
Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strate-
gist at ANZ Research, highlighted in a
daily market note that ‘China continues
to ramp up its purchases of nickel metal.
China’s imports of refined nickel reached
78 700 tonnes in the first five months of
2025, up 121% year-on-year’.
Iron ore prices were largely influenced
by developments in China. In June,
prices were suppressed by the rainy
season in the country, weighing on the
already weak construction sector.
Supply remains abundant with Vale,
the largest nickel producer in the
world, reporting near-record high pro-
duction in Q2, and Brazil seeing
monthly rising exports.
Worldsteel stats for Chinese steel out-
put showed decreases in June and
July with first half production reaching
a post-pandemic low. However, prices
climbed throughout July.

CHINA’S GROWTH DRIVE
Hynes noted: ‘Iron ore and steel prices
in China surged after Beijing vowed to
crack down on disorderly low-price

Shipments reached 591 000 tonnes in
Q2 2025, up 3% from 575 000 tonnes
in Q1. Aperam reported Ebitda of EUR
112 million, up from EUR 50 million in
Q1. It added that Q3 2025 adjusted
Ebitda is expected to be at a lower
level versus Q2 2025.
Another producer, Outokumpu,
reported a Q2 Ebitda of EUR 39 mil-
lion against EUR 56 million a year earli-
er, despite higher stainless steel deliv-
eries of 483 000 tonnes – versus 468
000 tonnes in Q2 2024. President and
ceo Kati ter Horst noted persistent
challenges in Europe, including sub-
dued demand, low-priced imports
from Asia and elevated energy costs.
‘The quarter was marked by uncertain-
ty and heightened geopolitical ten-
sions, leading to increased caution
among our customers and across the
value chain,’ she said.
Group stainless steel deliveries in Q3
are expected to decrease by 5-15%

82

The impact of the US tariffs imposed
by President Donald Trump earlier this
year on the stainless steel sector has
become clearer, although continued
uncertainty is frustrating any demand
recovery and this is being reflected in
company results.
Joost van Kleef, chairman of the BIR
stainless steel & special alloys commit-
tee, said in the latest BIR Mirror that
protections against unfair competition
were no longer fit for purpose.
‘The EU stainless steel industry cur-
rently finds itself in a devastating posi-
tion: a generally weak economic envi-
ronment has coincided with the US
administration’s unpredictable duty/
tariffs policy, thus creating more and
more uncertainty across Europe.’

He added that nickel pig iron and
imports of slab into Europe were
emerging as an alternative to scrap,
pressuring prices. Also writing in the
Mirror, committee member Vegas
Yang noted the 304 grade stainless
steel coil futures in Shanghai were at a
low of US$ 12 300 per tonne in late
June, falling from US$ 13 200 in May
before recovering to US$ 12 700 in
early July.

SIGNIFICANT HEADWINDS
Timoteo Di Maulo, chief executive of
stainless steel producer Aperam, refer-
enced ‘significant headwinds in
Europe, where demand remains per-
sistently depressed’ in the company’s
Q2 results.

P H O T O Shutterstock

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