NON-FERROUS
China changes tack Singapore Convention in October (see BOX). ‘One lot on the LME for
copper is a quarter of a million dol-
lars,’ Vu explained. ‘We will look
down towards a one-tonne contract
and to support the industry as well.’
He did not commit to a time frame
but said: ‘The first step is to grow
liquidity in the monthly contract that
would then allow us to build into the
small-sized contracts.’
Vu was speaking to delegates more
generally about ‘probably the most
impactful change’ carried out in 150
years. In September, LME published a
white paper on enhancing liquidity
which goes out to consultation shortly
for implementation by the end of
2025. There would be greater trans-
parency and more support for the
physical market, he promised.
‘Essentially, enhancing liquidity makes
buying and selling much smoother and
benefiting everyone in the market.’
77recyclinginternational.com | November/December | 2024
A U T H O R Robin Latchem P H O T O S Shutterstock
BIR’S VIEW ON NON-FERROUS MARKETS
The non-ferrous market is ‘worryingly’ unstable, according to Paul Coyte, president of BIR’s non-
ferrous metals division. ‘International turmoil is rife, with worrying instability,’ he wrote in the world
recycling organisation’s latest Mirror. ‘Economies are starting to ease interest rates to stimulate
consumption and the medium- to long-term trend remains bullish. Either way, metal merchants
and consumers will continue to collect, upgrade and add value to support a circular economy.’
At BIR’s convention in Singapore in October, Sean Davidson, ceo of Davis Index, anticipated
‘a massive surge’ in demand from China as its economic situation improved with the stimu-
lus of substantial Government investment. There was also a demand challenge for the US
market in getting sufficient copper.
‘With all the capacity additions that are coming online in the US, depending on who you talk
to, they expect copper scrap supply in the US to be net short by 2030. The analysis suggests
that No 1 and No 2 copper will be extremely difficult. In about four to five years, it will
become a price war for sure. It’s going to get harder. I think you’re going to have to get
more creative.’ Davidson said the US aluminium industry had invested over US$ 10 billion
during the past decade and much more capacity was coming online. He argued that greater
secondary billet capacity in Asia would further increase competition for US and European
scrap. ‘So when we talk about a coming squeeze of supply, it’s almost here already.’
PRODUCTION FORECASTS
Preliminary data from the
International Copper Study Group
indicates that world copper mine pro-
duction increased by about 2% over
the first eight months of the year.
Register now
Almost three decades leading the World in Circular Economy Congresses
www.icm.ch
76-77-78-79_manonferrousadv.indd 77 19-11-2024 16:10
