Page 71 from: Recycling International November/December issue 2024
FERROUS
2025: steering into a
year of uncertainty
71recyclinginternational.com | November/December | 2024
manufacturing sector continued to
grapple with persistent headwinds
such as declining household purchas-
ing power, aggressive monetary tight-
ening, and escalating geopolitical
uncertainties. The ongoing weakness
in housing construction, which is driv-
en by tight financing conditions and
high costs, has further contributed to
the sluggish demand for steel.’
In stark contrast, India is expected to
maintain its strong momentum with
robust growth in steel demand pro-
jected for both this year and next.
Projections for India anticipate an
8.0% increase, fuelled by growth
across all steel-consuming sectors and
especially the continued strong growth
in infrastructure investments.
Theuringer quoted worldsteel as being
‘cautiously optimistic’ that global steel
demand will enter a phase of broad-
based moderate growth in 2025. ‘The
key determinants of the global steel
A U T H O R Robin Latchem | P H O T O Shutterstock
to Turkey, as sources reported a lack
of competing alternative export desti-
nations in recent months. At the same
time, the Turkish mills were able to
enjoy strong domestic rebar sales with
a rally in demand from stockists and
traders, with domestic rebar sales pric-
es climbing as high as US$ 660 per
tonne EXW, giving the mills wide profit
margins with scrap prices depressed.
Platts assessed Turkish exported rebar
at US$ 585 per tonne FOB on 8
November, down US$ 5 on the week.
The FOB Turkey rebar assessment
edged down gradually from US$ 600
on 3 October to US$ 590 on 31
October as the Turkish mills largely
focussed on their strong domestic
rebar sales and tried to maintain firm
export offers. As such, Platts assessed
the outright scrap-to-export-rebar
spread at US$ 223 per tonne on 8
November, down slightly from US$
230 on 30 October, which was its
highest level since July 2023, with
the scrap-to-domestic-rebar spread
enjoyed by mills at even wider
levels.
2025 REBOUND?
Before the US election, the World
Steel Association (worldsteel) forecast
that global steel demand this year
would fall for the third year in a row,
down 0.9% but would rebound in
2025. An update of worldsteel’s Short
Range Outlook for 2024 and 2025
expects ‘a broad-based recovery’ in
the world excluding China, with global
demand forecast to rebound by 1.2%
to 1 772 million tonnes (Mt) in 2025.
Martin Theuringer, chair of the world-
steel economics committee and md of
the German Steel Association, says:
‘2024 has been a difficult year for
global steel demand as the global
GREEN IS THE COLOUR IN SINGAPORE
BIR’s Ferrous session at its Singapore convention in October was dedicated
to issues surrounding ‘green steel’ and how recyclers would be affected by
growing demand for products with lower carbon emissions. For the mills
and their customers, that invariably means using scrap.
Divisional president Shane Mellor, md of Mellor Metals in the UK, won-
dered why the importance of recycled steel in making steel products more
sustainable was not sufficiently recognised. George Adams, ceo and presi-
dent of SA Recycling in the US, argued that without common regulations
across the world it was going to be hard to drive reductions in the carbon
footprint of steel production. In the US, he said it was ‘easier for mills to
run iron ore pellets’ than recycled steel and ‘they’re not as focused on their
carbon footprint as they are on their bonuses’. But he was adamant that
recycling was crucial. ‘It doesn’t matter whether it’s aluminium or steel or
copper, nothing reduces carbon more than recycling.’
Panellist Emmanuel Katrakis, director of public and regulatory affairs at
Galloo, thought the US was ahead of the EU because 70% of steel was pro-
duced in its electric arc furnaces using recycled steel. While the Ukraine
war had decoupled energy prices in Europe from the rest of the world, the
US had implemented its Inflation Reduction legislation – a difficult combi-
nation. ‘Big players in Europe invested in decarbonisation, not in Europe
but in the US because of that financial stimulus.’
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70-71-72-73_maferrousadv.indd 71 21-11-2024 08:47
