Page 47 from: Recycling International Jan/Feb 2025

NICKEL & STAINLESS

media reports suggesting the
Indonesian government could reduce
nickel mine quotas below the 272 mil-
lion tonnes permitted for 2025.
Although these have not yet been
confirmed, the country is said to be
seeking to preserve its resources and
enforce environmental standards.
Macquarie has said that, although
unlikely, potential cuts of up to a third
of global supply could result in an
upward price risk, and it continues to
see the market in a small oversupply
this year.
Trump’s return to power is likely to
cause uncertainty globally amid his
threatened tariffs. These taxes could
also impact neighbouring Canada’s
nickel industry, which is a large suppli-
er to the country. Meanwhile in the US
itself, some are expecting increased
production at sites where permits have
previously been denied, with the
President already issuing executive
orders rolling back environmental pro-
tections for mining, oil and gas.

PROFITS DOWN
The weakness of the stainless steel
market was seen in Outukumpu’s
profit warning in December, which
expects its Q4-adjusted Ebitda to be
lower than Q3 due to the market con-
ditions in Europe, extended mainte-
nance in Finland and a negative
inventory value impact. Aperam also
gave an update in January ahead of
its February earnings to say that vol-
umes in Europe remain at a
depressed level and pricing pressure
intensified in December.
Meanwhile, China has reported an
increase in both stainless steel pro-
duction and consumption for 2024.
Output reached 39.4 million tonnes in
the year, while consumption stood at
32.5 million tonnes.
Many will be watching China this year
for any additional stimulus that will
support its economy, especially con-
struction and consumer spending.

GREEN DRIVE
Momentum for greener product offer-
ings grew during 2024, and is likely to

continue in 2025, with Outokumpu
announcing an expansion to its Circle
Green offering. It said these products
had seen uptake by 30 companies,
accounting for 50 400 tonnes of
reduced emissions. The company also
recently invested EUR 40 million in a
biocarbon plant in Germany to further
reduce emissions and says it can
reduce 50% of its direct emissions
with biocoke.
Additionally, it has also recently pub-
lished externally verified new environ-
mental product declarations. The
company joins other producers in the
sector who continue to increase their

47recyclinginternational.com | January/February | 2025

offering of them, including Aperam
and Acerinox, seeking to meet rising
customer demands for environmental
data.
Meanwhile, Swiss Steel Group
announced in January it would supply
SKF its GreenSteel Climate+ brand of
bars and wires, which are produced
using steel scrap.
During 2025, the recycling of stainless
steel scrap will remain popular with
producers seeking to reduce emis-
sions, pairing this with renewable
electricity. Even so, pricing was under
pressure in 2024 due to alternative
feedstocks such as nickel pig iron.

Class I overhang and Indonesia’s policies reshape dynamics
Nickel markets face a shifting landscape in 2025, marked
by substantial production cuts and project cancellations
globally. While there were surpluses of Class II nickel in
2023, the market has swung toward a Class I surplus, driven by rising
Chinese supply and reduced usage in stainless steel and batteries.
Reported Class I stocks in LME and SHFE warehouses have surged by just
over 120 000 tonnes year-on-year, with Class II now likely to be in deficit.
Demand concerns are mounting, with weakening nickel uptake in both
stainless steel and EV batteries in 2024 and a cloudy outlook this year amid
fears of US tariffs and uneven global growth. Declining EV demand in
Europe and the US, coupled with China’s shift toward PHEVs and LFP/
LMFP chemistries, could pressure nickel intensity in batteries. Indonesia’s
new ore permitting regime has capped supply growth and ore shortages
may intensify if government restrictions tighten further in 2025, potentially
leading to production surprises on the downside.

Reference date: January 25, 2025

46-47_manickelstainless.indd 47 29-01-2025 11:29