Page 65 from: October 2016

65October 2016

Ferrous

higher in the Middle East at 2.216 mil-
lion tonnes while Turkey’s output surged
almost 13% from 2.528 million tonnes
in August 2015 to 2.853 million tonnes
in this year’s corresponding month.
Conversely, latest statistics from the
World Steel Association (WSA) reveal
August production declines for all of the
other leading steelmaking countries and
regions, including the EU-28 (-1.4%),
the USA (-3.4%), Russia (-1.9%),
Ukraine (-4.1%), South America
(-6.6%) and Africa (-6%).
The net result of this mixed performance
was that the 66 countries reporting to
the WSA produced a total of 134.125
million tonnes of crude steel in August
for an increase of 1.9% over the same
month last year. At 68.5%, global

capacity utilisation outstripped that for
both August 2015 and July 2016 by,
respectively, 0.5 and 0.1 percentage
points.
Nevertheless, world steel output was
0.9% lower in the first eight months of
this year at 1.065 billion tonnes. Among
the major producers, only India (+5.6%
to 63.21 million tonnes), Turkey (+4.7%

to 22.005 million tonnes) and Ukraine
(+8.6% to 16.334 million tonnes) reg-
istered year-on-year gains for the Jan-
uary-August period. The biggest losses
were recorded by the EU-28 (-5.2% to
107.931 million tonnes), South America
(-12.5% to 26.091 million tonnes) and
Africa (-12.9% to 8.02 million tonnes)
whereas far smaller declines were post-

ed by the USA (-0.9% to 53.455 million
tonnes), Russia (-1.6% to 47.031 mil-
lion tonnes), Japan (-0.4% to 69.944
million tonnes), South Korea (-2.1% to
45.236 million tonnes) and the Middle
East (-2.6% to 18.215 million tonnes).

Outlook
Anyone anticipating a seasonal rally
in ferrous scrap prices will have been
sorely disappointed to date. Values have
suffered steady erosion over the course
of September as many buyers looked to
keep the marketplace at arm’s length.
At the time of writing this report on the
eve of the fourth quarter, most ferrous
scrap experts were talking more about
price risks than a price run-up for the
near term.

Ferrous Scrap Prices Reference date: October 1, 2016

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** Composite sales price considers sales to domestic and international steel works and foundries on weighted average basis* Courtesy MetalPrices.com. Copyright (c) 2016 Argus Media Inc

USA Domestic Scrap Prices* (US$/GRT)
HMS 1 heavy steel scrap (1/4 Inch) composite price delivered at mills

USA Export Prices* (US$/GRT)
HMS 1, heavy steel scrap (1/4 Inch)

CFR Prices for shipments
from EU to Turkey (US$/t)
HMS 80/20 heavy steel scrap

350

300

250

200

150

S O N D J F M A M J J A S

S O N D J F M A M J J A S

S O N D J F M A M J J A S

S O N D J F M A M J J A S

350

300

250

200

150

172

172

138172
183

211

196186

170 175 167

212

290

219

190

180

160 170 170
177

270

218
195

219

200

165 170

195
190 195 185

175

225

305

230 225 225

205

185

—– Fob East Coast price
—– Fob West Coast price

190
185

190
180

170

220

300

225
220 220

200

180

185

145

155

152

160
170 184

245

225 220

226
210

400

350

300

250

200

400

350

300

250

200

Composite Sales Price ex Yard in Germany ** (€/t)
E3/European Standard Quality No. 3, heavy old steel scrap ( >6mm ) Source: BDSV/SecureCalc

149

146

135
150 156

166 165

181

228

138