Page 67 from: November 2014

I N T H E L A B O R A T O R Y . . .

Signifi cant potential
That said, keeping up with demand
‘may be possible’. The very high rate of
production growth and the rate of
increase in reserve estimates in the
past suggest that many of the critical
metals appear to have significant
potential for rapidly increased produc-
tion in the future. Almost 40% of the
world’s rare earth reserves are said to
be located in China, with 20% in Brazil
and 10% in the USA.
‘There is little evidence to suggest that
resource availability or depletion is
affecting production growth or will do
so in the short term,’ the researchers
add. ‘If economic incentives persist,
then more reserves are likely to be
proven and production is likely to
increase.’ Rising demand will probably
provide that incentive, it is believed, as
it drives up prices, thus encouraging
exploration and production companies
to locate and produce increasing quan-
tities of metal.

Demand for critical metals for low-carbon energy technologies is
still rising rapidly and ‘requires serious
attention from industry and policy-
makers’, according to the UK Energy
Research Centre (UKERC).
Ever-popular applications for these
metals include electric vehicle batteries
(lithium and cobalt) as well as thin-fi lm
solar panels (indium and tellurium). It
is estimated, for example, that the
battery-driven electric vehicle market
will average over 40 million sales per
year by 2050 – quite a leap from the
current level of roughly 150 000 units.
A new report from the UKERC and the
Energy Research Partnership showcases
the high-upon-high growth in critical
metals production from 1971 to 2011.
The most striking jump was for gallium,
which saw a dramatic 1300% spike in
production around 2010.
Indium surged nearly 1000% compared
to the baseline year while lithium pro-
duction climbed over 800%. Rare earths
experienced a similar trajectory but saw
a mild dip again from 2009 onwards.
‘The supply of critical metals has
increased over the last few years from a
number of countries,’ says UKERC

future demand. ‘While the options for
material substitution for some tech-
nologies appear to be limited, there are
several technologies which can substi-
tute for those containing critical met-
als,’ the researchers insist.
Some thin-fi lm PV technologies could
utilise amorphous silicon instead of
critical metals. Crystalline silicon solar
cells are also a suitable substitute for
this application as they continue to
experience price reduction and have
well-developed material supply chains.
‘Electric vehicles have similar techno-
logical substitutes, with fuel cells,
hybridisation and electric induction
motors helping to reduce the demand
for lithium and neodymium in future
designs,’ the researchers point out.
Greater support for mining as well as
strategic stockpiling of selected materi-
als, international diplomacy, fi nancial
support and bilateral agreements with
foreign exporters may all play a part in
meeting primary supply needs.
‘However, the UK will have to collaborate
with wider international governments
and industrial partners to achieve many
of these measures,’ the researchers
declare.

researcher Jamie Speirs. ‘However,
future availability remains uncertain and
this could have serious ramifi cations for
the UK’s decarbonisation strategy.’

‘Valuable role’
‘While recycling metals from end-of-life
products is not suffi cient to mitigate all
of the challenges associated with dra-
matic demand growth, it can play a
valuable role in improving the security
of metal supply,’ the report notes. Par-
ticularly for countries that rely heavily
on imports of critical metals.
‘The UK is particularly sensitive to the
availability of critical metals for energy
technologies because of our reliance on
imports and the affordability debate
around attaining a low-carbon energy
system by 2050,’ comments Mark Work-
man of the Energy Research Partnership.
‘We must urgently develop better tools,
greater capacity and oversight mecha-
nisms for understanding metal mineral
supply chains and exposure of the sup-
ply chains to non-availability.’

Substitution option
Substitution is heralded as a prime
mitigating factor which might ease

Recycling’s
role in maximising
resource potential
‘Demand for tellurium is predicted to increase by 360%
by 2030 and, under high demand estimates, could put
pressure on supply chains,’ says new research from the
UK Energy Research Centre and the Energy Research
Partnership. But researchers insist that ‘scaremonger-
ing’ over resource scarcity is ‘misguided’, adding that
there are ‘some reasons for supply optimism’.

By Kirstin Linnenkoper

Every month, Recycling International highlights a promising recycling-related research project with a global, technical, economic or social impact.
If you know of an interesting project which meets these criteria, contact our editorial team at [email protected]

For more information,
contact Jamie Speirs at:
[email protected]

RESEARCH

LED BY
Support fro

m

Resource scarc
ity

UK Energy Res
earch Centre

Energy Resear
ch Partnership

Lithium and cobalt are commonly used in the manufacture of electric vehicle batteries.

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