Page 79 from: November 2007
ondary aluminium smelters in the
USA with an opportunity to buy pri-
mary grade scrap that they were un-
able to purchase in the past, with
UBCs now carrying a lower value
than Twitch or certain grades of
sheet aluminium or extrusions.
On the primary side, Barclays
Capital forecasts that aluminium
will be trading at around US$ 3000
per tonne – or US$ 1.36 per lb – by
the end of next year.
Copper
The LME copper price touched a
seven-week low in early November
on the back of heavy selling.
Thus far in 2007, the cash price
for the red metal has averaged US$
3.23 per lb. Peru’s central bank be-
lieves the mean for the whole of the
year will be nearer US$ 3.20, falling
to US$ 2.90 for the early part of next
year. Meanwhile, analysts at Mitsui
Bussan Commodities are predicting
an LME cash average of US$ 3.68
per lb for 2008 compared to US$ 3.60
for 2007. As for latest scrap price in-
dications, radiators are fetching be-
tween US$ 1.95 and US$ 1.99 per lb
while red brass is around the
US$ 2.40 mark.
LME stocks of copper have climbed
almost 30% over the last six weeks
but prices are still drawing some sup-
port from the on-going, three-month
dispute at Grupo Mexico’s Cananea
facility. Despite a global copper sur-
plus of 16 000 tonnes for July, the
market was in deficit to the tune of
318 000 tonnes for the first seven
months of the year, according to the
International Copper Study Group.
Although world usage grew 7.3% over
the period, consumption would have
actually fallen 0.4% if not for China.
Lead & Zinc
The International Lead & Zinc
Study Group (ILZSG) has reported
Copper
LM
E
st
oc
ks
(x
1
00
0
m
et
ri
c
to
nn
es
)
0
50
100
150
200
250
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
LM
E
pr
ic
es
(i
n
U
.S
. d
ol
la
rs
/M
T)
FEBR AUGNOV DEC JAN SEPT NOVOCTAPR JUNEMAY
LM
E
st
oc
ks
(x
1
00
0
m
et
ri
c
to
nn
es
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
LM
E
pr
ic
es
(i
n
U
.S
. d
ol
la
rs
/M
T)
Nickel
15.000
25.000
35.000
20.000
40.000
45.000
50.000
55.000
30.000
FEBR AUGNOV DEC JAN SEPT NOVOCTAPR JUNEMAY
Zinc
LM
E
st
oc
ks
(x
1
00
0
m
et
ri
c
to
nn
es
)
0
500
400
300
200
100
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
LM
E
pr
ic
es
(i
n
U
.S
. d
ol
la
rs
/M
T)
FEBR AUGNOV DEC JAN SEPT NOVOCTAPR JUNEMAY
Recycling International • November 2007 79
a larger-than-expected 84 000-tonne
deficit in the lead market during the
first eight months of this year. For
its part, zinc posted a small surplus
for August although, when rolling
together the figures for the first
eight months of 2007, the global
market was some 28 000 tonnes in
deficit, according to ILZSG statis-
tics. It should be remembered, how-
ever, that the zinc market experi-
enced a shortfall of 311 000 tonnes
during the January-August period
last year.
Turning to prices, researchers at
London’s Standard Charter bank
are predicting an LME cash average
of US$ 1.24 per lb for 2007, rising to
US$ 1.34 in 2008. So far this year,
cash lead has averaged US$ 1.11 per
lb. Taking a somewhat different per-
spective, Barclays Bank’s analysts
believe that 2007 will mark the high
water-mark for lead prices and that
values will slip below the US$ 1 per
lb threshold next year.
Copper was not the only main-
stream non-ferrous metal to suffer a
price setback in early November,
with zinc also plumbing an eight-
week low. According to researchers
at CRU, zinc will be particularly vul-
nerable among the leading base met-
als to year-on-year price declines.
Contributing to the
non-ferrous metals
market analysis:
* Ralf Schmitz, German non-
ferrous trade association
VDM (Europe)
* Shi Lili, journalist and
consultant, China
Non-ferrous metal scrap, AL, Zinc, Cu, Brass, Honey…
Mixed metal scraps, motors, transformer, cable, meters …
Shredded AL, Zorba, heavy metals …
Trader & processor in China
(Plants in Shanghai, Guangdong)
Specialized in
advertisement
RI_058 MA Non-Ferrous:MA Non-Ferrous 08-11-2007 09:27 Pagina 79
