Page 80 from: May 2015
Non-Ferrous
80 May 2015
M A R K E T A N A L Y S I S
Bullish talk surrounds copper
and aluminium
Closed: April 22 2015
Aluminium
Following a first quarter for which
Alcoa reported strong profits and a
7% revenue increase when compared
to the same period last year, the alu-
minium giant has confirmed that it is
‘holding steady’ with its 2015 global
sales growth projections for the fol-
lowing light metal end markets: aero-
space (+9 to 10% versus 2014); auto-
motive (+2 to 4%); commercial
building and construction (+5 to 7%);
industrial gas turbine (+1 to 3%); and
packaging (+2 to 3%).
Alcoa has also increased its esti-
mate of global aluminium
demand growth in 2014 from
7% to 9%, resulting in glob-
al consumption of 54 million
tonnes – or 1.2 million
tonnes more than previ-
ously forecast. ‘Alcoa con-
tinues to project further
robust global alumini-
um demand growth in
2015 of approximate-
ly 3.5 million tonnes,
equalling 6.5% growth
and reaching a new
record high of 57.5 million
tonnes,’ the company adds.
And despite a difficult 2014 in
terms of financial results, an
upbeat appraisal of the light
metal’s prospects has also come from
Aluminum Corporation of China (Chal-
co). For the domestic market, the com-
pany anticipates ‘relatively quick’ con-
sumption growth over the coming
decade in transportation, durable goods
and new economic sectors.
In Europe, the aluminium market has
continued to be driven by high levels
of demand throughout the continent,
most notably from the automotive sec-
tor. Factories are said to be achieving
generally high production rates, with
orders placed through to the end of the
year in some instances. Against this
backdrop, Europe is facing a tight sup-
ply of alloy scrap whereas availability
of cast alloy scrap is said to be suffi-
cient for the market’s current needs.
As regards scrap prices in Germany, alu-
minium wire scrap (Achse) has been
trading at around US$ 1935 per tonne
of late while aluminium turnings (Autor)
have been attracting some US$ 1237. In
the UK, commercial pure cuttings have
been fetching US$ 1470-1543 per
tonne, loose old rolled cuttings US$ 1102-
1176 and commercial turnings
US$ 1014-1073. In the Netherlands,
new pure aluminium scrap has been
commanding in the region of US$ 1851
per tonne and first-quality old rolled
aluminium scrap nearer US$ 1428.
When compared to January-February
last year, US exports of aluminium
scrap dropped by a fifth in the opening
two months of 2015.
Copper
In its recently-released 2014 review
and outlook, Norilsk of Russia suggests
the copper price ‘has somewhat decou-
pled from the market fundamentals,
which look reasonably strong’.
Demand for the metal is expected to
be ‘robust’ both this year and in 2016,
driven by China through its industrial
consumption as well as its State
Reserve Bureau purchases. Further-
more, incremental supply growth is
slowing ‘as most of the new mine proj-
ects are approaching target production
volumes’. Norilsk concludes: ‘In spite
of having been on a rise recently, the
After a tough start to the current year, conditions
in the metals recycling economy appear to be
improving gradually – notably in some European
countries, experts suggest. However, the
picture is far from uniform. As of April 22,
LME cash prices are at the following per-
tonne levels (the corresponding figures from
our previous non-ferrous metals report of
late March are given in brackets): aluminium
US$ 1826 (US$ 1787); copper US$ 5973
(US$ 6093.50); lead US$ 2013.50 (US$
1823.50); zinc US$ 2188 (US$ 2070);
and tin US$ 15 370 (US$ 17 500).
RI 4-Analysis Non-Ferrous.indd 80 30-04-15 15:22
