062 May 2008
The Spotlight on Lead and Zinc session at this year’s ISRI Convention and Exposi-
tion in Las Vegas confirmed to any remaining
doubters that the outlook for both metals is
inextricably intertwined with events – and
decisions made – in China.
According to Huw Roberts, Director of CHR
Metals Ltd in the UK, surplus lead smelter capac-
ity is currently available only in China while new
projects elsewhere in the world ‘are planned but
cannot be commissioned until 2009 at the earli-
est’. As a result, he concluded, ‘it may be 2010 or
2011 before sufficient smelter capacity ex-China
can be commissioned to remove the reliance on
China’s lead production’.
Meanwhile, the ‘biggest uncertainty’ in the
zinc market surrounded ‘Chinese export taxes
and economic environment’, Mr Roberts went
on to contend. ‘The world outside China will
likely see a refined zinc supply deficit in 2008
(without net imports from China) though the
global market will be in a small surplus.’
Taking account of all factors, the speaker ven-
tured LME average price predictions for 2008
of US$ 2410 per tonne for lead – a significant
drop from its current ‘crazy’ price level – and
US$ 2500 per tonne for zinc.
‘Huge’ lead price risks
However, Mr Roberts confessed that, for lead in
particular, his price projection had been made
without a high degree of confidence given that
By Ian Martin s p o t l i g h t o n l e a d & z i n c
Question
mark
hangs
over
lead
market
Despite the obvious attraction (for
some of us, at least) of a parallel
convention session entitled ‘Stop
the clock on aging – skincare and
make-up for the over 40s’, a full
meeting room greeted the return
of ISRI’s Spotlight on Lead and Zinc
after an absence of several years.
While this healthy attendance was
attributed in part to the recent
price appreciation enjoyed by both
metals, delegates were warned of
the likelihood of further volatility
in the lead market.
RI_009_ISRI lead & Zinc.indd 2 14-05-2008 13:48:35
