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May 2008 145
750 (US$ 1200). Availability of Rus-
sian and Ukrainian plate for export
has declined even further; the two
countries are awaiting another price
increase for May-rolled plate.
In 2007, China exported 65.2 million
tonnes of steel while the totals for
Japan and the EU were, respectively,
35.9 million and 32 million tonnes.
Spanish steel imports jumped 5.2%
last year to 15 million tonnes, with the
main suppliers being fellow EU coun-
tries followed by China. China’s fi n-
ished steel exports declined almost
20% in the fi rst three months of 2008
to 11.8 million tonnes but rebounded
in March. Prices improved a further
US$ 100-150 per tonne in April.
Conclusion
The boom in scrap prices cannot go
on forever and is demanding ever
more fi nancing by the leading scrap
companies, especially when building
stock for exports by ship. These ship-
loads often amount to around 30 000
tonnes – the customary tonnage in
the USA and Rotterdam for cargoes
to South East Asia.
Owing to sky-high prices for iron ore,
pig iron, metallurgical coal and now
even charcoal for making pig iron,
scrap remains a not-too-expensive
alternative for the mills. In this con-
text, the value of the US dollar has
risen again in relation to the Euro
and the Yen, although not against
China’s Renminbi Yuan which is
pegged to the greenback. Further-
Other importers are still negotiating
new coke prices but premium hard
coking coke is expected to triple in
price from US$ 95 per tonne to well
over US$ 300. In fact, Chinese met-
allurgical coke has recently been
offered at an incredible US$ 540-550
per tonne fob.
Steel
And of course, the upward price
fever is also affecting steel. Turkish
billet is being offered at US$ 1000
per tonne ex works and for export at
US$ 1100 per tonne fob. Fob rebar
prices have easily exceeded the mag-
ical US$ 1100 per tonne level and
Brazilian billet has been offered for
more than US$ 1150 cfr Middle East.
Rebar in Pakistan has yielded an
almost unbelievable US$ 1200 per
tonne for May deliveries.
US steel mills have been working at
a healthy 89% capacity utilisation
rate while shipments have been 10%
higher than a year ago. Cold rolled
coil (CRC) for the automotive indus-
try reached US$ 900 per tonne in
early April, notwithstanding the fact
that vehicle sales in, for instance, the
USA are falling back. CRC prices
above US$ 1150 per tonne were
reported at the end of April.
In Europe, latest prices for hot rolled
coil (HRC) were Euro 650-700 per
tonne (US$ 1040–1120) which com-
pares to US$ 550 at the start of the
year. CRC in Europe rose more than
Euro 50 per tonne in March to Euro
M A R K E T A N A L Y S I S Ferrous
Top 15 ferrous scrap importers
There is an obvious correlation between scrap imports and a high percen-
tage of electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking capacity because this process
demands roughly 90-100% scrap – or sometimes 105% in practice because
of melting losses. For this reason, the importer graph from the Brussels-
based International Iron & Steel Institute (IISI) features a column showing
the EAF percentage of total steel production for the different countries.
Currently, the EAF route commands a 31.2% share of global steel produc-
tion. If China is excluded, however, this percentage is considerably higher
because EAF production made up only 10.1% of the Asian giant’s steel-
making mix in 2007. Virtually all of China’s steelmaking growth has been
contributed by integrated steel mills using the blast furnace and blast
oxygen furnace (BOF) route. This situation is likely to change in the near
future when China begins to generate far more ‘obsolete’ or ‘post-consu-
mer’ scrap in the form of, for example, end-of-life vehicles.
Last year, China dropped down to eleventh place on the world list of scrap
importers after having claimed the number two spot for a couple of years.
China’s ferrous scrap imports also tumbled 37% last year although the decli-
ne was an even more spectacular 67% when comparing 2006 with 2005.
In contrast, Turkey continued to increase its scrap imports last year, brin-
ging in over 10% more than in 2006 and 17% more when compared to
2005. However, the most eye-catching change in scrap import terms was
reserved for Malaysia: last year, its ferrous scrap imports were 25% higher
than in 2006 and 72% above the 2005 fi gure. With a 2007 total of 3.688
million tonnes, Malaysia ranked ninth on the world scrap importer list.
India’s scrap imports fell 8% last year and by no less than 37% when
comparing 2007 with 2005. The country is using increasing volumes of
HBI/DRI as a scrap substitute. Italy slid from fourth to sixth place in the
importer league table last year owing to import restrictions resulting from
the fact that its government regarded scrap as a hazardous waste, alt-
hough it has subsequently retreated from this rigid view.
Nine of the world’s 15 largest ferrous scrap importers boast an EAF mar-
ket share above 50%.
Top 15 importers of ferrous scrap 2006-2007
(x million tonnes)
Ferrous Scrap 2007 2006 2006- 2007
Import MT Rank MT Rank 2007 Percentage
% of EAF
Turkey 15.400 1 14.000 1 10 75.2
South Korea 6.887 2 5.621 5 23 46.6
Spain 6.318 3 7.441 2 -15 77.9
Germany 5.927 4 5.941 3 0 30.9
Taiwan 5.418 5 4.459 8 22 47.9
Italy 5.242 6 5.669 4 -8 63.3
Belgium 4.488 7 4.203 9 7 33.2
USA 3.692 8 4.813 7 -23 58.9
Malaysia 3.688 9 2.941 13 25 100.0
Luxembourg 3.656 10 3.249 12 13 100.0
China 3.395 11 5.386 6 -37 10.1
France 3.206 12 3.345 11 -4 38.7
India 3.102 13 3.359 10 -8 58.2
Egypt 1.890 14 2.276 15 -17 83.9
Thailand 1.805 15 1.373 20 31 100.0
31.2 World
India: 6 months annualised
Egypt: Exports to Egypt
Turkey: ISSB estimate based on exports to Turkey & CSP growth (Source: ISSB)
RI_051_MA_Ferrous.indd 5 15-05-2008 09:04:08
