Page 38 from: June / July 2015
M A R K E T A N A L Y S I S
Non-Ferrous
For traders, the period since our previous
report has been disappointing given that
non-ferrous prices have remained under
pressure and demand has been generally
subdued. As of June 5, LME cash prices are
at the following per-tonne levels (the
corresponding figures from our non-
ferrous metals report of late April are
given in brackets): aluminium US$ 1697
(US$ 1826); copper US$ 5953.50 (US$
5973); lead US$ 1928 (US$ 2013.50);
zinc US$ 2140 (US$ 2188); and tin
US$ 15 430 (US$ 15 370).
38 June/July 2015
Markets fall short of
expectations
Closed: June 5 2015
Aluminium
Compared to record levels of nearly
US$ 500 at the beginning of the year,
premiums have fallen to US$ 150-170,
although analysts believe a further
sharp decline is unlikely.
In Germany, the aluminium scrap market
has been well supplied and quite slug-
gish, with wire scrap (Achse) at only
US$ 1890 per tonne and aluminium
turnings (Autor) around US$ 1238. In
the UK, commercial pure cuttings have
attracted US$ 1541-1603 per tonne,
loose old rolled cuttings US$ 1171-
1233 and commercial turnings
US$ 1079-1194. On the Dutch market,
new pure aluminium scrap has fetched
typically US$ 1910 per tonne and high-
quality old rolled aluminium scrap
nearer US$ 1473.
US secondary alu-
minium prices ended
May with old sheet
and painted siding
at 60 cents per lb or
just below whereas
old cast and MLC were
at 60-62 cents.
In its results package for the
opening three months of 2015,
Rusal of Russia predicts that global
aluminium demand will grow by
6.5% this year to 59 million tonnes. It
also notes that ‘overcapacity in the
Chinese aluminium market continued
throughout the fi rst quarter of 2015
due to seasonal factors affecting local
prices’. China’s aluminium stocks
climbed to 3 million tonnes as a result,
although the country’s market balance
is expected to improve during the sec-
ond and third quarters of 2015.
Latest fi gures from the World Bureau
of Metal Statistics reveal that demand
for primary aluminium climbed almost
1.7 million tonnes in the opening quar-
ter of this year to 13.86 million tonnes
whereas production recorded an
increase over January-March 2014 of
14.4%, thus yielding a global defi cit of
95 000 tonnes for the three-month
period. Aluminum Association stats for
North America confi rm that regional
demand for the light metal was 3.1%
higher than in the fi rst three months of
last year.
Copper
In Europe, scrap prices have fi rmed in
recent weeks but demand has been no
better than moderate because consum-
ers are generally well stocked. Bright
wire scrap (Kabul) has traded recently
at US$ 5985 per tonne in Germany,
copper granules 1a (Kasus) at nearer
US$ 6007 and non-alloyed bright wire
I (Kader) at some US$ 5838. In the
Netherlands, bright wire scrap has
been commanding US$ 5524 per tonne
and mixed scrap some US$ 5021.
Hailing ‘very good’ results for the fi rst
half of its 2014/15 fi scal year, copper
major Aurubis says support came from
‘a high production performance, an
improved input mix of recycling materi-
als and a very good metal yield’. Looking
ahead, the company suggests that ‘the
good conditions on the copper scrap
market should continue’ but adds that
‘declining copper prices could lead to a
tightening of the market with decreas-
ing refi ning charges in the short term’.
According to China’s National Bureau
of Statistics, the country produced 2.44
million tonnes of refi ned copper during
the fi rst four months of this year for an
increase of almost 12% over the same
RI 5-Analysis Non-Ferrous.indd 38 15-06-15 09:31
