Page 42 from: January / February 2014

42 January/February 2014

m a r k e t a n a l y s i s

Non-Ferrous

Aurubis hopeful for copper in 2014
There are some glimmers of an improvement in the
non-ferrous scrap sector with trade in Europe, for
example, said to have improved considerably in recent
weeks. As per January 23, LME cash prices are at the
following per-tonne levels (the corresponding figures
from our previous non-ferrous metals report of early
December are given in brackets): aluminium US$
1747 (US$ 1711); copper US$ 7327 (US$ 7027);
lead US$ 2182 (US$ 2051.50); zinc US$ 2075
(US$ 1859); and tin US$ 22 240 (US$ 22 530).
With the exception of tin, therefore, metals
prices have recorded gains over the period.

Closed: January 23 2014

Aluminium
With applications for aluminium con-
tinuing to grow in Europe, notably in
the transport and beverage can sectors,
industry experts are hopeful for a posi-
tive 2014. Availability of good-quality
scrap remains limited and material can
prove difficult to obtain at times;
despite this wider backdrop, scrap
prices in Germany have declined over
the course of recent weeks to around
US$ 1790 per tonne for aluminium wire
scrap (Achse) and US$ 1388 for alu-
minium turnings (Autor). In the UK,
meanwhile, commercial pure cuttings
have been fetching US$ 1526-1591 per

tonne and loose old rolled cuttings
US$ 1280-1312, while commercial
turnings have witnessed an increase to
US$ 1198-1236. And on the Dutch
market, new pure aluminium scrap has
commanded some US$ 1760 per tonne
and first-quality old rolled aluminium
scrap US$ 1556.
Across the Atlantic, meanwhile, the
Census Bureau has confirmed that US
aluminium scrap exports totalled
169 534 tonnes in the penultimate
month of last year.
On the Shanghai spot market in China,
2014 began with an aluminium spot
price of Yuan 14 060 per tonne

(US$ 2331). Following a drop to Yuan
13 560 per tonne (US$ 2248), the light
metal’s value fluctuated around this
lower level, mainly in response to a
combination of surplus supply on the
spot market and a wait-and-see
approach adopted by most traders.
Despite a sharp year-on-year increase
in November, China’s Customs Office
has reported that the country’s primary
aluminium imports dropped more than
41% to 295 422 tonnes in the first 11
months of last year. Exports over the
same period amounted to 92 310
tonnes for a decline of more than 22%
over January-November 2012.

Copper
‘Unfavourable’ developments within
the copper scrap markets regarding
both availability and processing fees
have been blamed in part for a weaker
business performance by European
copper giant Aurubis AG. The Germany-
based business generated operating
earnings before tax of Euro 114 million
(US$ 156 million) in the most recently
completed fiscal year compared to Euro
296 million (US$ 406 million) in the
previous 12 months.

Looking ahead, the company anticipates
an improvement in the market environ-
ment for copper scrap but concedes: ‘We
aren’t sure when this will take hold.’ The
company goes on to suggest that avail-
ability of complex recycling raw materi-
als ‘may rise with an increase in activity
in the processing industry’. It also pre-
dicts that the global copper market ‘will
likely be characterised by good demand
for cathodes for much of 2014 and that
the copper price ‘is well supported from
the current perspective’, adding ‘many
developments show that it has upward
potential, though the trend will be vola-
tile overall’.
In general, market observers believe
that the European copper market will
witness a significant recovery in 2014.
It is believed that the sharp decline in
LME copper stocks could be the result
of economic recovery in some EU coun-
tries. Some plants have returned to full
capacity and thus created a surge in
demand for copper. Demand has
become even tighter for scrap, which
has been described as ‘extremely scarce
at times’. Latest prices for bright wire
scrap (Kabul) are around US$ 7196 per
tonne and copper granules 1a (Kasus)

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