Page 42 from: January / February 2013

42 January/February 2013

m a r k e t a n a l y s i s

Non-Ferrous

Early-2013 gains for LME

The metals markets have made a decent start to 2013, with both
prices and demand heading higher as processors looked to restock
in many parts of the world following holiday breaks. In the EU,
however, many metals traders are reportedly struggling to survive
in those countries most affected by the Euro and wider economic
crisis, such as Spain. As per January 22, LME cash prices were at
the following per-tonne levels (the corresponding figures from
Recycling International’s previous non-ferrous metals report
of early December are given in brackets): aluminium US$
2000.50 (US$ 2002.50); copper US$ 8020 (US$ 7795.50);
lead US$ 2295.50 (US$ 2198); zinc US$ 2018 (US$ 1971);
and tin US$ 25 020 (US$ 21 130).

Closed: January 22 2013

Aluminium
In 2012, consumption of aluminium is
likely to have increased by 5% year on
year to 44.4 million tonnes on the back
of ‘robust’ growth in China (+11%),
the USA (+13%) and India (+7%),
according to the latest Resources and
Energy Quarterly from Australia’s
Bureau of Resources and Energy Eco-
nomics (BREE). Conversely, usage in
Europe is believed to have dropped
around 6% last year.
In 2013, growth in the construction and
transportation manufacturing sectors is
expected to support increased con-

sumption of aluminium, says BREE.
Therefore, world aluminium consump-
tion is forecast to increase by 6% to
47.3 million tonnes this year, with
China, India and the USA racking up
gains of, respectively, 12%, 7% and 3%.
Production growth will be limited by
curtailments announced by producers
in OECD countries in response to ‘high
stock levels developing in 2012, low
prices and rising input cost pressures,
particularly higher energy costs’. World
output is forecast to rise 0.8% in 2013
to 45.7 million tonnes.
According to the Aluminum Associa-
tion, North America’s light metal
demand climbed 5% in the first 10
months of last year to 19.2 million
pounds. The World Bank’s Washington
DC-based Development Prospects
Group is forecasting an average alu-
minium price of US$ 2350 a tonne in
2013, rising to US$ 2500 next year.
Turning to secondary raw materials, US
aluminium scrap exports in November
hit a monthly low for 2012 of 105 488
tonnes, carrying a value of US$ 264
million. In Germany, meanwhile, alu-
minium scrap prices followed the lead
of primary metals in heading higher:

recently, aluminium wire scrap (Achse)
was being quoted at around US$ 2031
per tonne and aluminium turnings
(Autor) at some US$ 1431. In the UK,
prices of commercial pure cuttings
have been at US$ 1560-1624 per
tonne, mixed alloy/old rolled cuttings
at US$ 1218-1300, and commercial
turnings at US$ 1055-1136.
Statistics from China’s Customs Office
reveal that imports of primary alu-
minium fell 42% year on year in
November but were 189% higher
across the first 11 months of 2012 at
504 102 tonnes. Over the same period,
exports jumped 55% to 118 958
tonnes. China’s primary aluminium
production advanced 12% to 17.963
million tonnes during the first 11
months of 2012. By mid-January,
stocks on the Shanghai Futures
Exchange were at a two-year high of
around 460 000 tonnes – a reflection
of growing output at a time of lifeless
downstream demand.
In early December, primary aluminium
prices in China were at Yuan 15 150
per tonne (US$ 2424) per tonne but
had fallen to Yuan 14 980 (US$ 2396)
by mid-January.

Copper
In early January, copper demand in
Europe was considerably better than at
the end of 2012, although many in the
marketplace still have doubts about
how positive this year will prove to be.
Some key indicators for copper are
quite positive: supply could be lower
than in recent years and exports from
Europe to Asia are set to grow. How-
ever, events will largely depend on how
Europe’s economic situation develops.
Copper scrap prices in Germany have
strengthened of late, with bright wire
scrap (Kabul) fetching around US$ 7760
per tonne.
With less than 98 000 tonnes shipped
overseas in November, US copper scrap
exports were almost 4% lower in the
first 11 months of last year at around
1.1 million tonnes, while values dropped
some 12% to US$ 4.05 billion. Mean-
while, customs statistics reveal that
Chinese imports of copper scrap jumped
to 470 300 tonnes in November last
year – their highest monthly level since
September 2008. Meanwhile, China’s
refined copper imports climbed around
20% last year to some 3.4 million
tonnes, according to customs data.

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