Page 38 from: January / February 2013

38 January/February 2013

m a r k e t a n a l y s i s

million in the ensuing year. Following a
relatively modest increase to 369 million
tonnes in 2016, a spurt to 402 million
tonnes is envisaged for 2017, according
to José Carlos Martins, Vale’s Executive
Director for Iron Ore and Strategy.

Steel
Asia broke new ground in producing
more than a billion tonnes of crude
steel in 2012 as world output edged
1.2% higher year on year to yet anoth-
er all-time peak of 1.548 billion tonnes.
‘The growth came mainly from Asia
and North America while crude steel
production in the EU and South Amer-
ica decreased in 2012,’ the World Steel
Association (WSA) points out in a
review of provisional statistics for the
year. However, Turkey should also
receive an honourable mention after
raising its output by 5.2% to 35.885

million tonnes in 2012 – despite a year-
on-year decline of 8.6% in December.
The global figure not only includes sta-
tistics from the 62 countries reporting
to the WSA on a monthly basis but also
production estimates for nations that
report only annually; the 62 countries
accounted for approximately 98% of
total world crude steel production in
2011, the organisation points out.
Therefore, the WSA has calculated that
annual crude steel production in Asia
last year was 1.013 million tonnes,
which is equivalent to a year-on-year
increase of 2.6% from the 986.5 mil-
lion tonnes of 2011. The continent’s
share of world steel production
increased from 64.5% in 2011 to
65.4% last year, with China boosting
its total by 3.1% to 716.5 million
tonnes to claim a 46.3% share of
global output. Production in India and

South Korea increased by, in turn, 4.3%
and 1.2% but Japanese output slid
0.3% to 107.235 million tonnes.

Less severe
Crude steel production in North Amer-
ica was 2.5% higher last year at 121.9
million tonnes, with US production
climbing by the same percentage to
88.6 million tonnes. While gaining
ground across 2012 as a whole, it is
worth noting that US crude steel out-
put fell 5.5% year on year in December.
And even more recent figures from the
American Iron & Steel Institute confirm
that, by the end of the second full week
of January, US production was trailing
that recorded in the same period last
year by 5.9%.
The EU-27’s steel production total for
2012 of 169.4 million tonnes repre-
sented a year-on-year decline of 4.7%;
for Europe as a whole, however, the
drop-off was a less severe 2.7% to
320.6 million tonnes from 329.5 million
tonnes in the previous year. South
America sustained a crude steel produc-
tion fall of 3% last year to 46.9 million
tonnes, with leading player Brazil
recording a year-on-year drop of 1.5%
to 34.682 million tonnes. Production in
the CIS region edged 1.2% lower to
111.3 million tonnes despite 2.5%
growth in Russia to 70.6 million tonnes.
The Ukraine suffered a 6.9% reverse in
output to 32.911 million tonnes.
Crude steel output in the Middle East
climbed 5.3% last year to 24.2 million
tonnes whereas African production was
just 0.3% higher at 15.7 million
tonnes. A 6.2% production increase in
December provided little embellish-
ment to the 2012 total for Oceania,
which at 5.8 million tonnes was 19.9%
shy of the 7.2 million tonnes of the
previous year.

Eye-catching
In December, the crude steel capacity
utilisation rate across the 62 countries
reporting to the WSA was 73.2% for a
fall of almost three percentage points
from the 76.1% of November 2012.
Utilisation for 2012 as a whole was

78.8% versus 80.7% in the previous
year, the association adds.
The table accompanying this report
reveals the leading 10 crude steel pro-
ducers of 2012 and also includes their
respective outputs for 2007, thus per-
mitting a comparison between last
year’s performance and that prior to
the onset of the global financial and
economic crisis in the latter half of
2008. While China catches the eye with
a production increase of almost 227
million tonnes in the five years
between 2007 and 2012, the same
comparison also reveals hikes of
around 23 million tonnes for India, 18
million tonnes for South Korea and 10
million tonnes for Turkey.

Dispute impact
In other statistics, it emerges that
China’s steel exports exceeded 5 mil-
lion tonnes yet again in November last
year but dropped to 4.85 million
tonnes in the following month as a
result of price increases. However, the
country’s overseas shipments for the
whole of last year were 14% higher
than in 2011 at 55.73 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, China’s boycott of Japa-
nese goods owing to the two countries’
territorial dispute will have cost the lat-
ter an estimated 550 000 tonnes in lost
steel production during the fourth quar-
ter of last year alone, according to
Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and
Industry. The brunt of the impact was
felt by Japan’s automotive industry,
with domestic passenger car production
at the eight leading manufacturers fall-
ing more than 12% year on year in
October. Furthermore, car sales in Japan
itself have been falling since September
last year following the termination of
government buying incentives.
November figures from the Japan Iron
and Steel Federation confirm that
exports to China fell more than 8%
during the penultimate month of last
year to a little over 446 000 tonnes –
even though total Japanese exports
surged 16% year on year and more
than 5% from the previous month to
3.45 million tonnes.

World’s top 10 crude steel producers (in thousands of tonnes)

2011/12
2007 2011 2012 % change

China 489.7 694.8 716.5 +3.1
Japan 120.2 107.6 107.2 -0.3
USA 98.1 86.4 88.6 +2.5
India 53.5 73.6 76.7 (e) +4.3
Russia 72.4 68.9 70.6 +2.5
South Korea 51.5 68.5 69.3 +1.2
Germany 48.6 44.3 42.7 -3.7
Turkey 25.8 34.1 35.9 +5.2
Brazil 33.8 35.2 34.7 -1.5
Ukraine 42.8 35.3 32.9 -6.9

Source: World Steel Association.
(e) = estimated.

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