36 January/February 2013
m a r k e t a n a l y s i s
Ferrous
A new year, but the same
old waiting game
A simple comparison of latest values with
the headline ferrous scrap prices carried in
our previous report of early December
reveals a small increase. In reality, however,
prices have lost some ground of late
following decent gains around the turn
of the year. Latest cfr indications for
shipments from Europe to Turkey are as
follows: US$ 390-395 per tonne for
standard quality HMS I/II 80/20 scrap;
US$ 395-400 per tonne for shredded;
and US$ 370-375 per tonne for the
HMS I/II 70/30 mix.
Closed: January 24 2013
Significant buying activity by Turkish mills pepped up ferrous scrap
prices early in the New Year. But having
booked perhaps two dozen cargoes,
their interest levels subsequently
waned, thus leaving suppliers to play
the now-familiar game of predicting
when consumers would need to return
to the international market.
At the time of our previous report in
early December last year, US shipments
of shredded scrap to Turkey were still
clinging on to a value of US$ 400 per
tonne cfr, with European supplies trail-
ing some US$ 10 behind. However,
some lower-priced trades in the early
part of December served to reduce
overall expectations.
Towards the middle of that month, US
exporters were selling cargoes of
shredded scrap at around US$ 390 per
tonne and HMS I/II 80/20 at some
US$ 5 less amid suggestions at one
point that prices for European sales to
Turkey were eclipsing the levels
obtained by US suppliers. But by the
end of the week immediately prior to
the Christmas holiday break, US
exports of HMS I/II 80/20 had improved
above US$ 390 per tonne as a number
of significant deals were booked.
Flow of bookings
Once the market had shifted back into
gear following the end-year holidays
in many parts of the world, US ship-
ments of HMS I/II 80/20 moved once
again above US$ 400 per tonne as
orders began to arrive from Turkey, with
European consignments of the same
mix at just below this threshold along-
side A3 scrap from the Black Sea.
Shredded from the USA was placed at
US$ 410 per tonne cfr Turkey.
Bookings continued to flow from Tur-
key at prices up to US$ 407-408 per
tonne for US-origin HMS I/II 80/20 until
just before the middle of January, at
which point the majority of scrap-
importing mills took a pronounced
backward step from the international
market, prompting some small mea-
sure of price weakness. At the time of
writing, HMS I/II 80/20 and shredded
from the USA have retreated to, respec-
tively, US$ 400 and US$ 405 per tonne
on a cfr basis, with some mills in Turkey
claiming to have received offers below
US$ 400 for the former. Meanwhile,
HMS I/II 80/20 out of Europe has been
attracting US$ 395 per tonne while A3
scrap is nearer US$ 391-392.
Pressure on mills
Japan’s scrap price setter Tokyo Steel
sent out a couple of positive messages
during the course of December: it
raised its scrap prices and then gave
notice that it would look to increase
some of its product values early in
RI_1-Analysis Ferrous.indd 36 28-01-13 16:14
