Page 49 from: December 2007
ernmental subsidies but results
from low production and operating
costs in China. It claims these ex-
ports have filled a gap in the market
and are in the interest of European
steel consumers. Chinese production
is expected to surpass 500 million
tonnes in 2008 after another annual
increase of 10%. If this happens,
China’s annual crude steel produc-
tion will have risen more than 100
million tonnes since 2006.
European steel consumers in, for
example, the automobile, construc-
tion and packaging sectors contend
that steel consumption in the region
is greater than production so Euro-
pean consumers’ interests for lower
steel prices should prevail.
Conclusion
All scrap markets are registering
strong activity but, despite strong de-
mand, exporters do not appear to be
in a hurry for new sales. At the time
of writing, very few exporters have
put forward offers for January 2008
shipment, with the exception of: a
40 000-tonne cargo from the USA
comprising 32 000 tonnes of HMS 1
and 80/20 scrap as well as 8000
tonnes of shredded scrap at an aver-
age price of US$ 365 per tonne; and a
35 000-tonne cargo from Belgium
made up of 25 000 tonnes of HMS 1
and 2 in addition to 10 000 tonnes of
shredded scrap at an average price of
US$ 352 per tonne. Both consign-
ments are for Turkey.
The main reason behind the lack
of sales activity is that exporters are
worried about ever-increasing freight
rates and have therefore become
more cautious. The freight rates ap-
plied to sales concluded in recent
weeks have gobbled up any increase
in fob prices.
With the long holiday period fast
approaching, the historical trend has
been for scrap prices to increase dur-
ing the winter months. Steel mills
and stockists would be expected to re-
turn from their holidays and set
about replenishing their inventories,
thereby pushing up scrap prices.
However, scrap prices in the first
quarter of next year will depend on
developments in the long product
market, the value of the US dollar
and ever-increasing energy prices.
M A R K E T A N A L Y S I S
Recycling International • December 2007 49
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
MayAprMarJan Feb JulyJun OctSepDec DecNovAug
199.83
207
223. 33
252.83
289.11
271
240.83 240.83
253.50
265.50
258.50 260
Fob West
Coast price
Fob East
Coast price
270
280
290
300
310
320
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
MayAprMarJan Feb Jun July OctSepDec DecNovAug
240
245
260
285
300
305
295
285
295
280
275
270
270
290
265
260 260
275
275
265 265
285
290
280
275
245
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
Highest price
Lowest price
330
340
350
MayAprMarJan Feb Jun July OctSepDec DecNovAug
245
270
285
310
320
305
300
290 290
310
285
280
275
290
280
280
295
275
280
295 295
315
295
280
264
250
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
MayAprMarJan Feb Jun July Aug OctSepDec DecNov
222
227.70
225.50
243.0
251.80
252.80
245.80
249
251.30
235
231.20 230.60
228.70
USA Export Prices (US$/GRT)
HMS 1, heavy steel scrap (1/4 Inch)
Fob Rotterdam Export Prices (US$/t)
HMS 80/20 heavy steel scrap
* Average German Scrap Prices (€/t)
S2 / E2, steel scrap (3 mm)
Delivered at mills
USA Domestic Scrap Prices
(US$/GRT)
HMS 1 heavy steel scrap (1/4 Inch)
com pos ite price deliv ered at mills
Ferrous Scrap Prices (Reference date: 6 December, 2007)
RI_025 MA Ferrous:MA Ferrous 06-12-2007 16:49 Pagina 49
