Short-term longs market ‘uncertain’

The global longs market has an uncertain future, according to the latest short-range outlook from Irepas.

The international association for producers and exporters of rebar says the various factors include Chinese exports, actions likely to be taken by the new US administration and difficulties faced by the steel industry in Europe.

Irepas notes that the Chinese government is planning another attempt to increase liquidity to stimulate domestic demand. ‘Domestic prices are still very low in China and so the potential short-term impact on exporters will probably be limited and they will not change current export volumes until the Chinese steel industry slows down production,’ the outlook asserts.

Chinese ambition

‘However, Chinese Premier Xi Jinping has pledged that China will meet its ambitious GDP growth target of 5% this year and remain the engine of global economic expansion, and so no production cuts would be anticipated. As a result, steel prices in the international markets, except in the US, will suffer.’

In the meantime, energy prices in Europe are at levels not seen since 2022 and mills in the region are planning shutdowns. ‘The market in Europe is still extremely challenging. Domestic producers are holding prices low to fight against imports and to collect any orders they can. But there is no way for them to reduce their prices further as their costs simply do not allow that. Demand is very weak.’

The outlook also assesses that trade in the global long steel products market may enter a period of even greater difficulties with the arrival of the Donald Trump administration in the US. ‘Proposed additional duties may trigger other countries to retaliate and it may soon become more difficult to trade globally.’

Unstable and complicated

The report concludes: ‘The situation in the global longs market, where competition remains very tough and more local than global, may be described as unstable and complicated with a difficult unpredictable outlook.’

Meanwhile, Irepas reports that the US Department of Commerce will no longer be considering an antidumping duty order against wire rod imports from Ukraine. The review, which covered the period from 1 March 2023 until the end of February 2024, relates to multiple companies. These are:

• ArcelorMittal Steel Kryvyi Rih
• Public Joint Stock Company Yenakiieve Iron and Steel Works
• PrJSC Electrometallurgical Works Dneprospetsstal
• PJSC Dneprovsky Iron & Steel Integrated Works
• Metinvest Holding
• Variant Agro Build