Non-ferrous market ‘complex’ says BIR

The non-ferrous market is ‘worryingly’ unstable, according to a senior observer of the industry. Paul Coyte, president of BIR’s non-ferrous metals division, made the comment in the world recycling organisation’s latest Mirror reviewing the non-ferrous sector.

‘It is a complex market at present, with generally lower consumption but increasing base metal prices,’ he writes. ‘International turmoil is rife, with worrying instability. Economies are starting to ease interest rates to stimulate consumption and the medium- to long-term trend remains bullish. Either way, metal merchants and consumers will continue to collect, upgrade and add value to support a circular economy.’

Also in the Mirror, Ma Hongchang, BIR’s advisor on regulatory and policy developments in China reports that the yield of major types of recycled non-ferrous metals has steadily increased. From January to June 2024, total output in China amounted to 9.6 million tonnes for a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. This figure includes production of recycled copper at 2.25 million tonnes (10.3% up year on year), recycled aluminium at 5.2 million tonnes (up 11.8%), recycled lead at 1.5 million tonnes (up 1.4%) and regenerated zinc at 650 000 tonnes (unchanged).

Fewer new projects

Additionally, Ma notes that new recycling projects in China are declining, although the conclusion is based on incomplete statistics. A total of 7.14 million tonnes of recycled non-ferrous metals capacity was approved and under construction in the first half of the year, a slump of 33% when compared to the same period in 2023. Recycled lead and copper projects fell by 79% and 72%, respectively, year-on-year. Renewable resource logistics increased, with year-on-year growth of 11.1% recorded in the first half of 2024.

Meanwhile, Reuters reports that China is seeking public feedback on a plan to include non-ferrous metal production in its carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS) by the end of the year, in a move it hopes will boost market liquidity.

The news agency explains that China’s carbon market consists of a mandatory ETS system and a voluntary greenhouse gas emissions reduction trading market, also known as the China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER).

‘The ETS will eventually include eight major emitting sectors including power generation, steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, paper and civil aviation, which together account for 75% of China’s total emissions,’ Reuters says. ‘The two schemes operate independently but are interconnected via a mechanism that allows firms to buy CCERs on the voluntary market to meet their compliance targets under the ETS.’

Convention speakers

BIR’s upcoming convention in Singapore on 28-29 October will undoubtedly consider all these issues. Non-ferrous president Coyte says the event promises ‘a great array of speakers’. While Sean Davidson, the founder of Davis Index, will review the sector from a macro level, Anthony Wong, director of Delta Metal, considers Chinese ‘offshoring’ of recycling capacity, including new smelting facilities in Thailand. Vivian Jiang, general manager of NingBo Jintian will consider green and low-carbon developments.