Platinum market deficit widens for third year 

Global platinum demand rose by 10% in Q1 2025, reaching 2 274 koz. The main drivers were investors fuelled by a surge in platinum stocks held on exchanges. Uncertainty around tariffs and a growing ‘location premium’ pushed more metal into the US market.

Investment demand growth offset lower demand in automotive and industrial sectors. Meanwhile, total platinum supply fell 10% to 1 458 koz, reflecting a seasonally weak mine production quarter that could not be offset by modest year-on-year recovery in recycling. This resulted in a Q1 deficit of 816 koz, the largest single quarterly deficit in six years.

Supply decline remains a prominent theme in 2025 with a 4% year-on-year drop in total supply to 6 999 koz forecast, the lowest level in five years. Demand is set to fall by 4% to 7 965 koz in 2025 with the growth in jewellery and investment not fully offsetting lower automotive and industrial demand.

Mining down

Total mining supply fell 13% year-on-year to 1 086 koz in Q1, the lowest quarterly output since Q2 2020. With weakness across all major producing regions except Russia, South Africa accounted for the bulk of the decline. The country experienced unusually intense rainfall during the quarter, leading to a 10% year-on-year drop in refined output to 715 koz.

Hope for scrap

The fall in total mining supply was partially offset by an increase in global recycling supply of 2% year-on-year to 372 koz.

Global recycling is forecast to show a modest recovery in 2025, growing 3% year-on-year to 1 573 koz as the supply of spent autocatalysts improves slightly. Overall, total supply is expected to decline by 4% in 2025 to 6 999 koz.

Above ground stocks are forecast to decline by 31% to 2 160 koz in 2025, resulting in only three months of demand cover.

Car market resilient

Set against the context of uncertainty as US tariff policy continues to evolve, automotive demand for platinum proved relatively resilient in Q1. It declined by 4% year-on-year to 753 koz.  

This resilience is reflected in the current full year outlook, with automotive demand expected to fall only 2% to 3 052 koz (some 11% above the prior five-year average).

Against a backdrop of slower-than-expected battery electric vehicle growth, and with demand from light-duty vehicle production flat, a 2% increase in demand from non-road vehicles is expected to partially offset a 7% decline in heavy-duty automotive demand.

‘Risks remain’

‘The platinum market is in structural deficit, irrespective of the uncertainties posed by today’s geopolitics,’ comments Trevor Raymond, ceo of the World Platinum Investment Council.

‘We are seeing that platinum’s diversity of demand provides a significant degree of resilience even as the US government’s new approach to tariff policy starts to take effect. At the same time, it is widely recognised that platinum mine supply continues to face downside risks.’

The strategic importance of platinum group metals to the US automotive industry may have spared the metals from US tariffs so far in 2025. ‘Over 300 koz of excess platinum stocks yet to be removed from NYMEX-approved warehouses. This suggests that market fears of further tariff risks remain, Raymond notes.

The broader impact of trade restrictions softening global economic activity is ‘highly unlikely’ to materially reduce the 966 koz deficit forecast for 2025.