Page 51 from: March 2013

51March 2013

vious year. Industry experts are projecting US

vehicle sales will increase by some 4-5% this

year to exceed 15 million. Chinese vehicle sales

jumped 4.3% from 18.52 million units in 2011

to a record 19.3 million units last year – an

almost tenfold increase over the past decade;

the Chinese Association of Automobile Manu-

facturers is predicting domestic vehicle sales

will increase a further 7% to 20.65 million units

in 2013. Japanese vehicle sales soared 26% from

2.69 million units in 2011 to 3.39 million in the

following year – a reflection of the dearth of

new purchases in the period immediately fol-

lowing the country’s catastrophic earthquake

and tsunami in March 2011. And vehicle sales

in Brazil surged 4.6% in 2012 to a record 3.8

million units – up from 3.63 million in the pre-

vious year and 3.51 million in 2010.

On the downside, new vehicle registrations in

the EU-27 slumped 8.2% in 2012 to 12.05 mil-

lion units from 13.34 million in the previous

year. Meanwhile, the Society of Indian Auto-

mobile Manufacturers has reduced its sales

growth estimate for the financial year through

to March 2013 to zero to 1%, considerably

lower than the 9-11% increase forecast earlier

last year; however, car sales in India could still

top 3 million units.

Supply falls in 2012
Among the major South African platinum pro-

ducers, Anglo Platinum has taken the decision

to restructure its Rustenburg mines, ostensibly

mothballing its higher-cost shaft systems and

limiting production at other areas with the over-

all aim of reducing annual platinum output by

400 000 ounces. Consequently, full-year produc-

tion guidance has again been reduced to

between 2.1 and 2.3 million ounces, down from

earlier projections of 2.6 million refined ounc-

es; Anglo produced a total of 2.53 million ounc-

es of refined platinum in its fiscal year ending

December 2011. Meanwhile, Impala reportedly

produced 750 100 ounces of platinum at

Rustenburg in fiscal 2012, with management

forecasting production could improve by as

much as 80 000-100 000 ounces in fiscal 2013.

In Russia, PGM production at Norilsk was mar-

ginally lower in the first nine months of 2012.

The total of 2.077 million ounces of palladium

was 1.2% below the 2.1 million ounces of the

same period in 2011, while platinum output

showed a similar proportional decline to

527 000 ounces from 531 000 ounces in the

‘Modest’ jewellery
demand growth for
platinum
With China accounting for around two-thirds of
total world platinum requirements for jewellery, the
slowdown in the country’s economy over the past
year has had an adverse effect on usage of the
metal in jewellery manufacture. As a result, total
consumption for this application is thought to have
grown only marginally in 2012.
Platinum’s price discount relative to gold is likely
to have appealed to value investors. Additionally,
consumer preferences for platinum jewellery at
the expense of both gold and palladium may have
also supported platinum demand despite the con-
sequences of reduced economic growth in China
and flat-to-negative growth across Europe. Esti-
mates of total global demand for platinum con-
sumed in jewellery were as high as 2.5 million
ounces for 2012, with only modest growth at best
anticipated for 2013.
Demand for palladium in jewellery applications
continues to decline, with offtake in 2012 likely to
have fallen to just under 500 000 ounces – less
than half the global consumption total of just five
years earlier. Its increasing cost relative to plati-
num, an overall change in consumer preferences
and a global economic slowdown, particularly in
China which accounts for about half of total
annual demand, have impacted palladium offtake
for jewellery manufacture – a trend which is
expected to continue in 2013.

Platinum, the precious metal that never changes colour nor fades,
ruled the red carpet at the 2012 Academy Awards. Natalie Portman,
who won an Oscar in 2011 for her leading part in the film Black
Swan, was wearing a platinum and diamond v-shaped cluster neck-
lace and platinum and oval diamond drop earrings by Harry Winston.

Revised forecasts called for a more modest

increase in the volumes of recycled PGMs from

automotive converters in 2012 to around 1 mil-

lion ounces of platinum (broadly the same as

in 2011), 1.5 million ounces of palladium

(+10% year on year) and 240 000 ounces of

rhodium (+7%).

Clearly, the fortunes of the automotive sector

are particularly important for the PGM mar-

kets and for recycling of these metals. Industry

consultant IHS Automotive is projecting 85

million vehicles will be produced globally in

2013, rising to over 100 million by 2017. The

greatest gains will continue to be made in China

and other Asian countries, as well as across

South America. Production in these major

growth markets is likely to remain focused on

smaller-engine vehicles that can meet local

emission standards with higher relative load-

ings of palladium.

The double-digit production increases record-

ed over recent years in China and elsewhere may

have passed into the realms of history, but global

output should continue to attain record levels.

Rising vehicle manufacturing totals and tighter

emission regulations will sustain the growing

demand for PGMs, particularly palladium.

Almost tenfold increase
US vehicle sales climbed to more than 14.3 mil-

lion units in 2012 from 12.8 million in the pre-

Platinum demand rose 2% to hit 8.88 million ounces last year, while
global supplies grew by 7% last year to 7.11 million ounces.

Pure platinum wire (99.95 %) dissolves easily in a mixture of one part
nitric acid, two parts hydrochloric acid.

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