MARKET ANALYSIS
Downturn clouds ‘green’
optimism
Increasing global demand for sustainable steel
offers a bright future for recyclers but lower
growth in many countries hits secondary mate-
rial supplies.
42
Although scrap and iron ore prices
rose, net margins either kept pace or
in some cases narrowed, it added. ‘In
this overall context, the first quarter
of 2023 could be a very difficult one
for the global long products market,
even the worst quarter in a long
time.’
The outlook suggests good perfor-
mances in the first half of 2022 will
cushion a weaker H2 but believes the
situation will be quite different this
year and they will be forced to
reduce outputs further to minimise
losses on their balance sheets. ‘Under
these circumstances, the current sta-
tus of the market can be described as
highly unstable and unpredictable.
The outlook is also very challenging
and unpredictable. The situation is
certainly tough but with the end in
sight.’
This is not a common global picture,
however, as there were upbeat
reports from Fastmarkets’ Middle
East Iron and Steel (MEIS) conference
in December. A keynote panel discus-
sion at the Dubai event hosted by
Fastmarkets chief executive officer
Raju Daswani heard that there were
no signs of a downturn in the region
and that the coming years will be ‘a
golden age’. Ravi Singh, ceo of steel-
maker SULB said there was no threat
of recession locally, unlike in Europe
and the United States.
Turkey’s steelmaking industry was
also discussed at the MEIS confer-
ence. According to FastMarkets,
domestic steelmakers are facing mul-
tiple challenges, with a squeeze in
scrap availability the main problem,
along with high energy costs, a weak
lira and low export demand.
TARIFF MOVES
In mid-November, India scrapped
export duties on pig iron, specified
iron and steel products and pellets,
IREPAS reported. As a result, 15%
export duties from India on major
longs and flat steel products as well
as pig iron, were lowered to zero,
while the export duty of 45% on pel-
lets was scrapped. The duty on
exports of iron ore lumps and fines
A U T H O R Robin Latchem
The latest short-term outlook from
International Rebar Producers and
Exporters Association (IREPAS) says
that mills continue to face cost pres-
sures in the global long steel prod-
ucts market because of higher raw
material costs and energy prices.
The gloomy economic outlook in
most – but not all – regions continues
to dampen expectations as metal
recyclers grapple with the growing
demand for secondary materials but
the challenge of widespread reces-
sion.
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