Page 69 from: Read it online: issue 6!
non-ferrous
Global growth
encourages traders
material will enter under harmonised tariff
codes for scrap but that the last two dig-
its of each code are the key identifier
between scrap entering under the new
‘recycled raw materials’ regime and the
outgoing ‘solid waste’ regime.
NOVELIS GETS FINAL NOD
Aluminium giant Novelis completed the
sale of a plant in Belgium this Autumn
to comply with the demands of EU and
Chinese regulators following its acquisi-
tion of Aleris earlier in the year. Even so,
the company has yet to negotiate a final
payment with Alvance, the international
aluminium wing of GFG Alliance, which
bought the former Aleris plant in Duffel.
A year ago, Alvance agreed a price of
EUR 310 million. But at the closing of
the deal on 30 September, Novelis
received only EUR 210 million and the
parties have agreed to arbitration over
payment of the outstanding amount.
69recyclinginternational.com | November/December | 2020
ASSURANCES IN BIR KEYNOTE ADDRESS
Two keynote presentations at the BIR online convention in October offered some assurance for a recy-
cling sector learning to cope with the Covid-19 pandemic. Stefan Schilbe, chief economist at HSBC
Germany, and Philippe Chalmin, professor of economic history at Paris-Dauphine University, suggest-
ed recyclers could take comfort in the knowledge that the impact of the crisis on commodities had
been less severe than some might have expected. Prices of the leading non-ferrous metals quoted on
the LME at that time were above those recorded in January this year. Gold had been above US$ 2 000
an ounce in August but was down to US$ 1 900 in October while iron ore was around US$ 120 per
tonne.
According to Schilbe, commodity prices would be driven by China’s expected growth of 7% next year,
boosted by a national emphasis on new infrastructure. ‘One of the factors, aside of any monetary poli-
cy, is the economic recovery we’ve seen in China and the fact that infrastructure has seen an improve-
ment and this typically involves a lot of commodities.’
Chalmin said all other precious metals had followed gold – silver, palladium and rhodium (‘the most
expensive metal on earth now’). He expected iron ore prices to dip below US$ 100 per tonne with a
slight downward movement in ferrous scrap values. He believed that China’s recovery had already
been factored into values, adding: ‘I don’t see much scope for a rise in prices’.
In a period when the incoming US president was not known, Schilbe anticipated monetary policy in
the US remaining ‘ultra-loose’ while a stronger Euro was likely to dampen an export recovery in
Europe. He identified a series of downside risks to recovery: prolonged pandemic, protectionism, high
levels of indebtedness and the undermining of confidence through bankruptcies and unemployment.
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