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Recovering vital metals by
recycling more car batteries
‘Battery costs are falling by half every five years as the scale of manufacturing
increases,’ Berenberg bank analyst Asad Farid told the recent E-waste World Expo
in Frankfurt. Based on this trend, the global electric vehicle market will reach US$
140 billion (EUR 125 billion) by the end of this year.
That’s not all 2020 has in store. The
electric bus sector is predicted to see
fourfold growth, topping US$ 60 bil-
lion, while stationary battery storage
solutions could be worth almost US$
15 billion. According to Farid, this will
yield ‘a tsunami of old battery cells’.
The analyst expects around 20 million
e-cars to be sold in the coming five
years which ‘translates to 3.5 million
tonnes of automotive batteries to be
recycled’.
Ultimately, Berenberg projects almost
265 000 tonnes of battery waste will be
on the market by 2022, possibly grow-
ing to 2.2 million tonnes by 2028. As
Farid points out, car batteries repre-
sent ‘a treasure chest full of expensive
metals’. For example, metals worth
US$ 2 billion went into electric vehicles
in 2017 and this value will grow to US$
12 billion in the next five years.
Today, stainless steel makes up more
than 70 kg of the weight of current
models by Tesla and Chevrolet while
nickel and lithium are both around 55
kg. Large amounts of precious metals
will go into the next generation of
electric vehicles, driving up raw mate-
rial prices. By 2022, it is expected the
market will need 350 000 tonnes of
stainless steel, 285 000 tonnes of lithi-
um; 215 000 tonnes of aluminium, 175
000 tonnes of nickel, 110 000 tonnes
of copper and around 30 000 tonnes
of cobalt.
The analyst believes a consensus that
EV batteries have a lifecycle of more
than 15 years is wrong. ‘We think it is
more like five years,’ Farid argues.
‘Adding ten years to the life cycle of
batteries by using them in energy
storage systems is an unrealisable
dream. It’s simply not feasible.’
Firstly, old EV battery packs experi-
ence an exponential rate of battery
degradation after losing 20% of
capacity. Secondly, recycling process-
es are very labour intensive as old
cells come in different types, shapes
and sizes. Farid says lithium nickel
manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) and
lithium nickel cobalt aluminium oxide
(NCA) batteries are not suitable for
major power applications.
Battery degradation will also increase
as vehicles with faster charging cycles
are introduced to the market. Farid
notes that a doubling in charging
speed results in a fourfold increase in
battery degradation. However, while
cars with larger battery packs have a
significantly slower rate of battery deg-
radation, the automotive industry is
moving towards smaller units.
Combining these factors indicates that
the volume of EV batteries available for
recycling is ‘understated’, Farid argues.
Battery pack replacement is becoming
a more common practice.
Replacement costs are likely to be
much lower in the near future as the
recovery of metals from old batteries
packs could finance 40% of a new bat-
tery pack. This could radically enhance
the resale value of older electric cars.
Overall, the analyst estimates that by
2022 up to 30% of the demand for
lithium and 10% of the demand for
nickel will be met by recovering met-
als from EV batteries. It means the
global recycling community will have
an important role to play in helping to
combat any bottlenecks.
EDITOR’S TIP: read the full expo cov-
erage on page 16
A U t h o R Kirstin Linnenkoper
10-11-12-13-14-15_trendsupdates1.indd 10 15-01-20 14:36
