niCkel & stainless
SCRAP DEMAND HIGHER
Stainless steel scrap prices have also
been on the rise given the tight scrap
supply conditions, improving stainless
steel demand, elevated nickel prices
and on-going logistical hurdles. In the
United States, Davis Index reports the
price of 316 series solids delivered to
the processor have risen nearly 80%
since the beginning of last year. Rising
prices level for ferrous scrap and other
raw material inputs have also under-
pinned stainless scrap prices this year.
In addition to rising domestic
demand, US scrap exporters are also
starting to ship more stainless materi-
al, despite continued container short-
ages and limited vessel availability.
Commerce Department data shows
the United States exported 54 000
tonnes of stainless steel scrap in
August, more than double the July
volume on improved demand from
India, Taiwan, Mexico and Canada.
CONTINUED GROWTH EXPECTED
Expectations for solid global econom-
ic growth for the remainder of 2021
and into 2022 should be conducive to
elevated global stainless steel produc-
tion and scrap demand. The
International Monetary Fund’s latest
projections show the global economy
will grow 5.9% in 2021, including 6.4%
growth in emerging markets and
developing economies. Looking into
2022, Reuters’ poll of industry analysts
returned a range of nickel price fore-
casts from US$ 16 540 to US$ 22 125
per tonne with a median price fore-
cast of US$ 18 375 per tonne.
Average prices around that level
should continue to incentivise stain-
less steel producers to consume larger
volumes of stainless steel scrap, pro-
vided processors can actually obtain
and transport the material to their
consumers in light of the current dis-
array across supply chains.
The up-trend is still intact
Unexpected strong demand meets an unexpected low
supply. Instead of a widely anticipated Ni surplus for
2021, based on strong expansion of Indonesian production, the consensus
view is now for a significant deficit for the year. A reduction of LME stocks
by over 100 000 tonnes is evidence for that. The only thing that could
bring Ni down at the moment is a further reduction in Chinese stainless
steel production that is already running about 10% below the monthly lev-
els of the first half of 2021.
Nickel
/3-mtsNickel Price (in U.S. dollars /t) LME Stocks (x 1000 metric tonnes)/
– 2 0 1 5 – – 2 0 1 6 – – 2 0 1 7 – – 2 0 1 8 – – 2 0 1 9 – – 2 0 2 0 – – 2 0 2 1 –
Reference date: November 7, 2021
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
–
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
–
71recyclinginternational.com | November/December | 2021
Congratulations to B Lal
Steel Team for installing
and commissioning the
“First Auto Shredder
in India in 2019”
“Recycling metals
for a sustainable
tomorrow”
National Steel Limited
Mainline: + 64 9 263 0263
E-Mail: [email protected]
Web: www.nationalsteel.co.nz
Address: 29, Hobill Ave, Wiri, Manukau,
Auckland, New Zealand
70-71_manickelstainless.indd 71 10-11-21 14:45
