26
Great expectations:
electric vehicles
change up a gear
‘Recyclers are facing a very dynamic battery market,’ according to Christophe
Pillot a leading consultant who estimates that around 1.4 million tonnes of end-of-
life batteries were available for recycling in 2020. He told delegates at the annual
International Battery Recycling Congress (ICBR) that this will grow to two million
tonnes by 2030.
‘Looking ahead, this represents a very
healthy growth rate averaging roughly
9% over the next ten years,’ says
Christophe Pillot of Avicenne Energy.
‘The big question recyclers around the
world have is: “How much of which
metals will be needed to sustain the
hungry global battery market?” We
have prepared a modest outlook that
builds on today’s main trends and charts
the growth trajectory over the next
decade,’ he tells industry stakeholders
at the ICBR assembly in Geneva.
Bottlenecks ahead?
‘Let me preface our calculations by
stating that we have enough resources
on Earth to power the battery industry.
Yes, we have enough cobalt, enough
lithium, enough nickel. But let’s be
frank, the market is very complex and
volatile so a shortage could occur very
quickly,’ Pillot tells delegates at the
26th edition of the event. ‘I can tell you
now, if we don’t make the necessary
investments in time, that means prices
will go up dramatically. That’s why
recycling is so important.’
Looking ahead, he believes demand
for battery metals will mean at least
120 000 tonnes of cobalt are required
by 2030. ‘Actually, it’s more realistic to
assume it will be around 150 000
tonnes by that time.’ In this scenario,
the li-ion battery market will take the
biggest bite out of global production
capacity – to the tune of 67%-70%. ‘A
huge amount,’ Pillot asserts.
Demand for lithium within the battery
sector will be close to one million
The entire battery market value, tak-
ing into account all chemistries, will
exceed US$ 190 billion (EUR 163 bil-
lion) by 2030, perhaps even reaching
US$ 200 billion. The rechargeable and
primary battery market is currently
worth around US$ 105 billion of which
rechargeable batteries total US$ 90
billion.
a u t H o R Kirstin Linnenkoper
26-27-28-29-30-31_batterycongress.indd 26 10-11-21 15:28
