market analysis
Big decline in turkish
freight rates
September was a tough month for traders
with cargo rates to Turkey for HMS I/II falling
sharply from just under US$ 300 to nearer US$
230
62
a U T H o r Robin Latchem
After a rollercoaster few months,
Turkey’s scrap market experienced a
quieter period of trading in August
with religious and other public holidays
a factor. But this was short-lived into
September when prices slumped with,
at the time of writing, a reported drop
of US$ 62 from the UK scrap prices
reported in the last issue. News of
these increasingly lower-priced cargoes
rippled across the global markets,
knocking trader confidence.
Even so, there were more positive
sounds when the latest US industrial
production numbers for August were
seen to be better than expected. The
Fed reported that overall output
increased 0.6% following a 0.1% con-
traction in July. Among the individual
sectors, manufacturing was up 0.5%
and mine production rose 1.4%.
The US manufacturing capacity utilisa-
tion rate improved to 75.7% while the
total industry rate was at 77.9%. But
that had to be set against US Census
Data through to July showing exports
of ferrous scrap (excluding stainless
and alloy steel scrap) down 2.2% as
weaker shipments to Taiwan, Mexico,
India, Egypt and Thailand more than
offset gains in other markets.
Exports to Turkey fell from 387 000
tonnes in June to 325 000 tonnes in
July, although that was still up 3.3%
year-to-date. In terms of future mar-
kets, Data Bridge Market Research
produced a report in early September
saying it expected the global metal
recycling market to reach just shy of
US$ 60 billion by 2025, up from US$ 36
billion in 2017. That would be a CAGR
of 6.5%.
Trading got off to a subdued start in
August when, over a fortnight, only
two cargoes were booked, both multi-
grade cargoes sold for an average
price. A US cargo purchased HMS I/II
90/10 as part of a mixed grade cargo
for US$ 294 per tonne, putting HMS I/
II 80/20 near US$ 283 per tonne, while
another multi-grade cargo included
HMS I/II 75/25 at US$ 279, putting
80/20 near US$ 277 per tonne. It was
also reported that Turkish mills had
begun halting production due to poor
finished steel sales in the export mar-
kets.
Trading paused during the celebrations
for the Eid religious holiday mid-month
and after a 10-day break, two
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