Page 67 from: Recycling International September/October issue | 2022
NICKEL & STAINLESS
stainless steel products in China is
closely tied to the health of real estate
market.
European market participants are also
being impacted by transportation bot-
tlenecks, including low river levels that
have impeded the flow of goods and
difficulty obtaining railcars due to the
increased rail demand from the oil and
gas sector, according to the Oryx
Stainless Group. In the United States,
softening domestic market conditions
have been partially offset this year by
rising export demand for stainless steel
scrap. According to trade statistics
from the US Commerce Department,
the US exported more than 253 000
tonnes of stainless steel scrap during
Jan-Jun 2022, a 67% increase as com-
pared to the first half of 2021 thanks to
improved demand from India, Mexico,
Canada, and Germany.
OUTLOOK
Looking forward, Macquarie is now
projecting that world nickel production
will increase nearly 17% to 3.13 million
tonnes in 2022. At the same time,
Indonesia is considering imposing new
taxes on nickel product exports. While
the outlook for nickel demand from the
stainless steel sector remains murky,
industry analysts and market partici-
pants remain optimistic regarding nick-
el demand growth from the energy
and EV markets. Brazil-based Vale is
now projecting global nickel demand
will increase 44% by 2030 in response
to the global ‘energy transition’. But in
the short term, commodity analysts
from ED&F Man Capital are projecting
nickel prices will trade between US$ 20
000 and US$ 23 000 per tonne in
September.
From summer lull to autumn blues
Whilst nickel prices averaged US$ 21 700 per tonne dur-
ing the summer months with fluctuations ranging
between US$ 19 030 and US$ 24 100 per tonne, LME warehouse stocks
continued to slowly but steadily erode. Slowing demand in Q3/22 and
Q4/22 is likely to shrink stainless steel production year-on-year whilst
growth in nickel-containing EV batteries remains a big upside in the medium
term. The future of Russian supply remains uncertain and challenging, bear-
ing in mind it accounted for around one quarter of LME deliverable material
and a big share of European Class I consumption. However, the hefty
growth in Indonesian supply is expected to swing the market back into a
surplus of at least 100 000 tonnes and further oversupply in the next few
years. Macroeconomic downside risks persist and the energy crisis is likely
to have a major impact on mill consumption in the remainder of 2022.
Reference date: September 7, 2022
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
3-mts Nickel Price (in U.S. Dollars / metric tonne)/ LME Stocks (x 1,000 metric tonnes)/
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
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