niCkel & stainless
Coronavirus concerns
cloud markets outlook
navirus (Covid-19) brought manufactur-
ing activity to historic lows, the sector
continued its recovery in August, the
first full month of operations after sup-
ply chains restarted and adjustments
were made for employees to return to
work’.
EXTREMELY POOR EXPORTS
Stainless steel and scrap prices had
been following the upward trend in
nickel prices. In the US, the Davis Index
reports prices for 330 solids increased
to around US$ 4 520 per tonne in
September, up from US$ 3 300 in May.
Rising US steel and carbon steel scrap
prices also contributed to firmer stain-
less scrap prices and improved scrap
flows in early September. But the
export market for stainless scrap has
been extremely poor this year. US
stainless scrap exports during Jan-Jul
2020 were down 28% as compared to
the corresponding period last year on
weaker demand from Taiwan, India,
Canada and other markets, according
to Commerce Department trade data.
Looking forward, there continue to be
more questions than answers for nickel
and stainless steel market participants.
Whether governments will create new
fiscal stimulus programmes to spur
economic growth, as recently suggest-
ed by the heads of the Federal Reserve
and the European Central Bank,
remains a key unknown, particularly
in light of the uncertain political out-
look in the US and Europe. Trade
restrictions are also of paramount con-
cern given the impact of Indonesia’s
nickel ore export ban and China’s
evolving approach to scrap metal
imports. But the impacts of the corona-
virus pandemic on future economic
growth, employment, consumer
sentiment, business investment and
manufacturing output are increasingly
critical as seasonal weather changes
approach in the major developed
economies.
Musk moving Nickel
Nickel fell in September by almost 1,000 USD/t or 6%.
The peak at 15,700 USD/t at the beginning was the reac-
tion to an Elon Musk comment, that he will need a lot of ‘clean Ni’ in the
future for TESLA batteries. After his last comments on the ‘Battery Day’ on
September 22nd, Ni fell sharply as it became clear that the shift to the new
Ni intensive batteries will take longer than expected.
Nickel
/3-mtsNickel Price (in U.S. dollars /t) LME Stocks (x 1000 metric tonnes)/
– 2 0 1 4 – – 2 0 1 5 – – 2 0 1 6 – – 2 0 1 7 – – 2 0 1 8 – – 2 0 1 9 – – 2 0 2 0 –
Reference date: September 25, 2020
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
35,000
32,000
29,000
26,000
23,000
20,000
17,000
14,000
10,000
8,000
5,000
57recyclinginternational.com | September/October | 2020
56-57_manickelstainless.indd 57 28-09-20 16:31
