Page 85 from: May 2005
Aluminium
The fall in LME aluminium prices
was reflected in scrap values towards
the end of April. Midwest secondary
smelters were talking in terms of 58
and 59 cents for old sheet and cast de-
livered, while MLCs were around 65
cents and UBCs were fetching some
70-71 cents delivered. Trade feedback
suggests scrap consumers were able
to satisfy the bulk of their needs dur-
ing early April and lowered prices in
line with terminal market levels. A
shortage of supply was highlighted
among automotive grades.
At 132 146 tonnes, US aluminium
scrap exports were 41% higher in
the first two months of this year
compared to the same period in
2004. Overseas shipments of remelt
scrap ingot increased by 46% to 4122
tonnes while exports of UBCs soared
124% to 1324 tonnes.
Latest statistics show that, in
March 2005, Western World alu-
minium stocks were higher than in
February at 3.3 million tonnes. This
also represented an increase over
March 2004.
Copper
Phelps Dodge is one of the latest
major authorities on metals to sug-
gest copper prices should cool during
the course of the second half of 2005
once refined metals begin to flow
more freely to consumers. Among the
analysts, Macquarie Bank believes
that the copper deficit will be slashed
in 2005 as the pace of production
growth will easily outstrip consump-
tion gains; the company predicts an
LME cash average of US$ 1.38 for
the current year. This compares to
predictions of US$ 1.299 and US$
1.375 from, respectively, Barclays
Capital and Merrill Lynch.
Delegates to the ‘Spotlight on
Copper’ meeting at the US Institute
of Scrap Recycling Industries’ recent
annual convention heard from
Leanne Baker, Managing Director
for North America at Investor Re-
sources Ltd of California, that the
copper price average should reach
US$ 1.40 for 2005 before falling to
US$ 1.20 and US$ 1.00 in, respec-
tively, 2006 and 2007.
Meanwhile, figures outlining US
exports of copper scrap underline a
now-familiar trend. If one includes
Hong Kong, China accounted for al-
most 70% of all US exports of copper
scrap in the first two months of
2005. However, the overseas ship-
ments total of 91 842 tonnes was
11% lower than the 102 816 tonnes
recorded in the same period last
year. China took a total of 62 980
tonnes, with leading exports includ-
ing 15 797 tonnes of No 2, 10 084
tonnes of mixed copper scrap, and
6415 tonnes of No 1 bare bright.
Latest reports from the trade
point to some ‘aggressive’ offshore
copper scrap buying of late. As for
domestic copper buyers, many ap-
pear to be in a similar position to
their aluminium counterparts in
that they have been finding suffi-
cient supply to meet their needs.
Lead & Zinc
At the recent 2005 Convention of
the US Institute of Scrap Recycling
Industries in New Orleans, guest
speakers at the ‘Spotlight on Lead/
Zinc’ meeting indicated that the fun-
damentals for both metals appeared
promising for the current year and
beyond. According to Dick Amistadi,
a consultant with Hammond Lead in
North Carolina, refined lead sup-
plies would remain tight this year.
Meanwhile, Bill Kalogerakis of
Canadian metals giant Noranda ex-
pected zinc consumption to slow but
said supply would remain tight ow-
ing to a dearth of new mine develop-
ments. Analysts’ latest deliberations
suggest a zinc price range for 2005
of 51 to 65.80 cents.
The International Lead and Zinc
Study Group (ILZSG) poits to stable
US lead demand; worldwide, howev-
er, the organisation is predicting de-
mand of 7.25 million tonnes this
year compared to global production
of 7.09 million tonnes. ILZSG is also
anticipating a deficit of approaching
200 000 tonnes in the global zinc
market.
M A R K E T A N A L Y S I S
Contributing to the
Non-Ferrous
Metals Market Analysis:
* Ralf Schmitz, German
non-ferrous trade association
VDM (Europe)
* Kumar Radhakrishnan,
General Manager,
International Division of
Simsmetal Ltd, Australia
(Asia & Pacific Rim)
* Ian Martin, Recycling
International’s Editorial
Consultant (North America)
85
Zinc
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FEBRMAR APR MAY APRAUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC JAN
Aluminium
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FEBRMAR APR MAY APRAUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC JAN
North America
Soaring aluminium scrap exports
■ Non-ferrous metal scrap, stainless, nickel scraps…
■ Telecom relay, military and meter scraps
■ Cable, motors, transformer core, mixed metal scraps
■ HRC, CRG, GI/GL, PPGI, EG, CRGO, tinplate
■ Dismantled silicon steel, secondary grade steel coil, offcut
steel, reusable rail
■ PET, HDPET, LDPET, PS, PVC, Nylon, ABS…
