Page 41 from: January / February 2005
Aluminium
Of note in the US aluminium
scrap market, UBCs achieved their
highest level in many years – around
73 cents delivered – towards the
start of 2005. However, by the mid-
dle of January, the market was
nearer 65 cents on the back of scant
mill buying activity and an upturn
in downgrades and rejections.
According to the latest statistics,
total aluminium scrap exports in-
creased by 13% in the first 11 months
of last year to 597 860 tonnes. Remelt
scrap ingot shipments jumped to
21 911 tonnes – some 37% higher than
the 15 955 tonnes recorded in the Jan-
uary-November 2003 period. By con-
trast, US exports of UBCs dropped by
31% from 5265 tonnes to 3642 tonnes.
Meanwhile, US primary alumini-
um production fell by 6.9% last year
to 2.517 million tonnes, according to
statistics from the Aluminum Asso-
ciation.
Copper
Activity in the domestic US copper
scrap market was somewhat muted
in the first half of January, with
many pointing by way of explanation
to a higher-than-expected level of
sales towards the end of December.
Latest figures reveal little varia-
tion between US copper scrap ex-
ports during 2003 and 2004. A total
of 652 879 tonnes of copper scrap was
shipped overseas in the first 11
months of last year, a mere 3% more
than the 632 481 tonnes dispatched
in the corresponding period of 2003.
Refined copper scrap exports were
just 2% higher at 297 943 tonnes
while brass scrap shipments showed
the most dramatic change, rising
42% from 44 660 tonnes in the first
11 months of 2003 to 63 302 tonnes
in January-November 2004.
With copper stocks falling to a
fourteen and a half year low during
2004, the metal’s average price for
last year of $1.2897 on Comex was
bettered only by the US$ 1.3472
recorded in 1995. However, 2004 did
produce the largest year-on-year gain
in price terms – up 59% or 48 cents
compared to the 2003 average of just
over 81 cents.
Leading analysts are anticipating
a slightly lower average price of
around US$ 1.15 for this year. This
may seem high in historic terms but,
notably, most market watchers sus-
pect that the second half of 2005
may yield substantially weaker con-
ditions in the copper market.
Lead & Zinc
Forecasters are suggesting that
2005 could prove to be a dramatic
year for the zinc market. It is gener-
ally agreed that supply will struggle
to keep pace with the introduction of
new production capacity, although
some disquiet continues to surround
the level of unreported stocks. Among
those analysts prepared to commit
themselves to price projections at
such an early stage of a new year,
Barclays Capital is anticipating an
LME cash price of US$ 1400 per
tonne for the first six months of 2005.
For its part, lead is already coming
off the back of a dramatic 12-month
period. The metal’s price averaged
40.3 cents in 2004, not far off double
the 23.4 cents average recorded in the
previous year. Forecasters are gener-
ally anticipating an average price
around the mid-30 cents mark in
2005 as global supply and demand
move towards achieving a greater
balance.
M A R K E T A N A L Y S I S
Contributing to the
Non-Ferrous
Metals Market Analysis:
* Ralf Schmitz, German
non-ferrous trade association
VDM (Europe)
* Kumar Radhakrishnan,
General Manager,
International Division of
Simsmetal Ltd, Australia
(Asia & Pacific Rim)
* Ian Martin, Recycling
International’s Editorial
Consultant (North America)
Zinc
LM
E
st
oc
ks
(x
1
00
0
m
et
ri
c
to
nn
es
)
600
650
700
750
800
850
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
LM
E
pr
ic
es
(i
n
U
.S
. d
ol
la
rs
/M
T)
JAN FEBR MAR APR MAY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC JAN
Nickel
LM
E
st
oc
ks
(x
1
00
0
m
et
ri
c
to
nn
es
)
0
10
20
30
40
50
11.000
12.000
13.000
14.000
15.000
16.000
LM
E
pr
ic
es
(i
n
U
.S
. d
ol
la
rs
/M
T)
JAN FEBR MAR APR MAY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC JAN
Lead
LM
E
st
oc
ks
(x
1
00
0
m
et
ri
c
to
nn
es
)
20
40
60
80
100
120
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
LM
E
pr
ic
es
(i
n
U
.S
. d
ol
la
rs
/M
T)
JAN FEBR MAR APR MAY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC JAN
North America
Strong copper sales in December
41
